Does the Ghani Administration Mean a Greater Role for Women in the Afghan Economy?

At his inauguration on September 29, President Ashraf Ghani thanked his wife, Rula, for her support during the campaign, and to the surprise of many in Afghanistan, promised Afghans that she would continue her work advocating on behalf of the nation’s 750,000 internally displaced people. Having previously served as the country’s finance minister in 2002-2004 and later worked with the World Bank and other multilateral institutions in state-rebuilding efforts, President Ghani is keenly aware of the role of women in effecting broad social and economic change. It was thus only natural for him to acknowledge his wife’s loyalty and tenacity.

President Ghani now faces the steep challenge of marshaling domestic and international resources for positive social and economic change. Right now, with 36 percent of its population below the national poverty line and a gross national income (GNI) of $700 per capita, Afghanistan remains a deeply impoverished country – 13 years after the toppling of the Taliban government. Nearly three quarters of Afghans reside in rural areas and are largely employed in agricultural production, yet agriculture contributed to only a fifth of the national GDP. Those who do work in the private sector find themselves facing a toxic business climate that was ranked by the World Bank at nearly the bottom (183rd) of 189 countries surveyed, in terms of ease of doing business. Meanwhile, conflict and insecurity continue to undermine the economy, preventing potential entrepreneurs and investors from having the stability they need to start and grow their businesses, and ultimately, to create jobs. As the drawdown of the U.S.-led combat mission continues through the end of the year, international news outlets like the Guardian have already reported an uptick in violence, as insurgents “test the resilience of the government’s army and police.”

These concerns are starkly reflected in The Asia Foundation’s 2014 Survey of the Afghan People. Only 21.5 percent of the 9,271 citizens surveyed reported an improvement in their economic situation since last year. More than three quarters (76.5%) reported that their economic situation was either unchanged or worse off than last year. When asked for reasons their country is moving in the wrong direction, insecurity (38.3%), corruption (24.2%), and unemployment (22.6%) were the three top issues cited, and when asked what Afghanistan’s biggest problem is at the national level, insecurity topped the list (34%), followed by corruption (28.4%). The next two most frequently cited problems were both economic issues (unemployment and a poor economy), together totaling 36.7 percent. At the local level, unemployment was the most frequently cited problem (33.1%).

Afghanistan biggest problems

Afghanistan’s fragile economy can barely afford to waste any of its resources, least of all half of its human resources and capacity. Yet that is exactly what has been happening. Women and girls in Afghanistan fall behind their male counterparts when it comes to education, literacy rates, and labor force participation. According to the World Bank, the percentage of girls to boys in primary and secondary education was 67 percent. That is, there are only two girls in school for every three boys. At the tertiary enrollment level, that number falls to just one female for every three males. Literacy rates reflect those trends, with a literacy rate for girls between ages 15-24 of only 32 percent, compared with 62 percent for boys the same ages. It’s also unsurprising then that only 16 percent of females 15 and up are in the (formal) labor force, compared to 80 percent of males. That means that more than four out of every five (84%) women (and one out of every five men) who could contribute to economic recovery do not.

But there is hope. Perceptions about women’s role in the economy are starting to change, and so too are the trends on the ground. Around two-thirds (67.8%) of Afghans say that women should be able to work outside the home, according to the Afghan Survey. In addition, the percentage of Afghans who say that female members of their family contribute to household income has increased from 13.9 percent in 2009 to 22.4 percent in 2014. In various areas of its business climate, Afghanistan has also made clear progress in recent years. For example, the World Bank’s Doing Business study documents action taken to simplify preregistration and registration formalities. (Indeed, Afghanistan is ranked an admirable 24th in starting a business). The country has also recently introduced an online national registry of notices and searches of liens on certain property, which will eventually contribute to the strengthening of lenders’ legal rights.

President Ghani has stated that, among his first reforms, he “will aim to improve the rule of law and fight corruption.” He has also been vocal about his intention to support a greater role for women in the Afghan economy. He recently tweeted: “Experience has shown that if we invest on a girl, it will change the next 5 generations. Hence, we must understand the importance of women.” His focus on reform and on drawing women into the country’s transformation augurs well for the country’s future. Time will tell if the rest of his fellow citizens can embrace his strategy toward prosperity.

Katherine Loh is a senior program officer for The Asia Foundation’s Economic Development Programs in San Francisco. She can be reached at [email protected]. The views and opinions expressed here are those of the individual author and not necessarily those of The Asia Foundation.

A Conversation with Pakistani Journalist Wajahat Ali

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The Asia Foundation’s deputy country representative in Pakistan, Ameena Ilahi, recently spoke with Pakistani journalist Wajahat Wajahat AliAli, who in 2010 served as an Asia Foundation William P. Fuller Fellow in Conflict Resolution at the New America Foundation in Washington, D.C.

As an accomplished journalist, looking back, what do you consider the highlight or most remarkable moment in your career?

I have plenty of recollections, but it’s hard to isolate a single moment that can be described as the highlight of my career. I have spent about 14 years in journalism, reported from overseas locations, visited conflict zones, interviewed dozens of important personalities, and filed several stories on significant developments in the region.

However, plenty of things are etched in my memory. I can still recall my sense of accomplishment when I saw my first byline. I also remember the day when our television team got hold of a video that showed how Pakistan’s twice-elected prime minister, Benazir Bhutto, was assassinated.

I have not forgotten how an Iranian dignitary stormed out of the room after I interviewed him since he didn’t like my questions or how a senior State Department official declared that her entire interview was off the record when I asked her about Washington’s stance on some sensitive issues between India and Pakistan.

In your view, what are the biggest challenges and opportunities that the future holds Pakistan?

The issue of religious extremism is obviously a big challenge. However, there are other problems as well – and some of them are not even being discussed in this country.

Everyone knows, for instance, that Pakistan’s economy is in a bad shape and, despite last year’s democratic transition from one political administration to another, the country has not really managed to acquire political stability.

However, not many people realize that Pakistan is likely to become a water-scarce nation by 2030. That will have severe consequences for its people. Yet, its politicians and media organizations have largely failed to educate them about this issue and the country desperately needs to start a serious debate on this subject.

On the flip side, Pakistan has witnessed some positive social trends in the recent past as well. A large number of women have started participating in the social, economic, and political life of the country. In my opinion, that is a major development since it can lead to greater economic prosperity and change social attitudes for the better.

This may not happen overnight, but this trend may have a deeper impact on Pakistan’s society than all the violence that we’ve witnessed in the last decade or so.

Based on your leadership experience, what advice would you give young leaders in your country today?

Since we are talking about positive social trends, let me point out that Pakistan has seen a significant increase in the number of private education institutes in recent years. I believe that many of them have produced some very smart graduates who are truly motivated to bring about a positive change in this county.

Many of these young people have started taking a lot of interest in Pakistan’s politics. Some of them have even participated in the movement for restoration of the judiciary – a campaign that, among other factors, resulted in the downfall of Pakistan’s former military ruler, General Pervez Musharraf.

While these young people have their heart in the right place, many of them know very little about their own country. In most cases, they don’t appreciate the complexity of issues confronting Pakistan and quickly fall for populist political narratives and fire-breathing orators.

I think it is very important for young Pakistanis to know who they are. They should travel and explore their country, try to figure out how this society works, and challenge people who try to sell them simplistic solutions to complex problems.

It’s natural for young people to have solid beliefs and strong political convictions. However, they should also learn to question their opinions, be open to new ideas, and cherish their doubts.

As a former grantee of The Asia Foundation, what are your recollections about the experience and how did it help to shape your career?

When I began my fellowship in October 2010, I was trying to learn more about religious radicalization and extremism in Pakistan. My stay in Washington, D.C., put me in touch with some of the leading counterterrorism experts and I found that to be an extremely valuable experience.

My fellowship also made it possible for me to travel quite extensively in the United States, visit a number of conflict resolution centers, interact with the Muslim community, and learn a great deal about American people and their way of life.

I was particularly impressed when I went to The King Center in Atlanta. The center contains surprising details about the civil rights movement in the United States, reminding visitors such as myself that a politically mature nation not only celebrates its glorious past but also preserves and learns from its painful memories.

I also learned a lot about U.S. policy toward Pakistan and its neighboring states and witnessed how developed countries debate issues, generate ideas, and address their outstanding challenges.

The views and opinions expressed here are those of the individual and not necessarily those of The Asia Foundation.

Panel of experts evaluates “Asian Regional Architecture: Steps towards ASEAN Integration”

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is changing the regional landscape as it works towards creating a political, economic, and social/cultural community by 2015. All the while, other regional bodies host meetings and summits, vying for relevance and influence. Against this backdrop of multiple, emerging regional architectures, Myanmar, which continues to become more engaged in the international arena, holds the Chair of ASEAN for the first time in 2014.

On the morning of October 24, a panel of experts gathered in Washington to examine the issues remaining for ASEAN as its 2015 milestone for integration approaches, including whether economic integration is making progress, the effects of Asia’s rising regionalism, and the impact of the U.S. ‘pivot’ in the region. In a discussion moderated by Mr. John Brandon, the director of Regional Cooperation Programs for The Asia Foundation, panelists addressed various aspects of the challenges and opportunities to strengthening ASEAN and achieving regional integration.

In her remarks, Dr. Chaw Chaw Sein, a professor in the Department of International Relations at the University of Yangon in Myanmar, described the “openness, opportunity, and obstacles” characterizing Myanmar as it hosts the ASEAN chair and takes on the responsibility of arranging and convening meetings for its neighbors after a long period of isolation. She noted the challenges of economic integration in Myanmar, particularly the need to speed up the country’s industrialization and prepare local small and medium enterprises (SMEs) for the implications of integration. She highlighted the opportunity for increased civil society (CSO) involvement, noting the ASEAN People’s Forum represented the largest gathering in Myanmar’s contemporary history, with over a thousand participants, including local CSOs from Myanmar. She acknowledged the difficult role for Myanmar in balancing members’ views and China’s position on the South China Sea, and the difficulty for Myanmar’s leaders of simultaneously holding the Chair and also undertaking domestic reforms, particularly the peace process negotiations. She emphasized that through the performance of the ASEAN chairmanship Myanmar’s government seeks to demonstrate its interest in a continued and increasing role in regional affairs.

Mr. Edmund Sim, a partner in the Singapore-based firm Appleton Luff, opened his remarks by stressing the difference between the 2015 goal of economic integration and its effective date, which would not be until December 2015. He noted the difficulty of achieving a single market and single production base that can be inclusive of indigenous actors and address the challenges of open borders for labor. Sim contrasted ASEAN with the EU and NAFTA trade arrangements, noting that to move forward with a single market ASEAN will need more powerful institutions and regulations to navigate the significant barriers to integration. He cited the ASEAN Business Club as one of the first effective groups of businesses engaged in this area.

In her presentation, Ms. Elina Noor, Assistant Director of Foreign Policy and Security Studies at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies in Malaysia, reflected on the upcoming chairmanship of Malaysia and its likely focus on the concept of a “people-centered ASEAN.” She predicted that ASEAN would still declare the community on schedule, even if more work to consolidate it will be ongoing.  Noor noted that strengthening the community would include a stronger Secretariat, and that a high-level task force is focused on this. She outlined challenges related to the post-2015 agenda, such as reconciling the behind-the-scenes approach to management versus a more rules-based ASEAN, how to publicly express the goals of ASEAN as measured and relevant, and how to highlight ASEAN’s achievements so that they are more widely known. Noor concluded that it was a challenging time for Malaysia to assume the chair, facing the important question of how to resolve the code of conduct regarding the South China Sea and the need to encourage a “global movement of moderates” despite domestic challenges in the member states.

Ms. Yun Sun, a Fellow in the East Asia Program at The Stimson Center, commented on the Chinese view of regional architecture. She described the “new Asia security concept,” as presented during the Shanghai summit in May, which aims to find “common comprehensive” solutions and ensure all counties have equal and inclusive security. She noted this concept resembles a Chinese version of the Monroe Doctrine, which presents “Asia as Asia’s Asia” and U.S. alliances as not conducive to Asian security. From this viewpoint, she explained, China would prefer regional architecture that would reorient Asia security away from military alliances, and does seem to be supporting ASEAN as a continuing, central mechanism in the region. Regarding regional economic architecture, she noted China is taking a pragmatic approach working through existing mechanisms and bilateral relationships. The proposed AIIB for regional development, she explained, is a response to Chinese perceptions that the current economic multilaterals exclude China. While 21 countries have expressed interest thus far, and China is willing to provide 50% of the funds, she cautioned that it remains unclear how exactly the institution would operate and whether it would more closely resemble a commercial bank or an international aid institution, particularly since most of the 21 signers would be recipients rather than funders of the new bank.

Mr. Kavi Chongkittavorn, a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University in Thailand, reflected that in light of Malaysia’s previous strong performance as ASEAN chair, he expected a successful tenure again in 2015. He reviewed the recent expansions of ASEAN in its +2 and +3 configurations, to include China, Japan and Korea, and Australia, New Zealand, and India, and the US and Russia invitation in 2010 from Singapore.  He cautioned that China’s support for ASEAN centrality might not continue, and described the EAS as the best forum and configuration as it convenes leaders and can consider strategic matters.  He also noted that recent changes in posture in Japan to be more active and strategic with a more assertive policy stance have unsettled some ASEAN members, which also poses a challenge.

After their presentations, the panelists took questions from the audience of over 45 attendees, who raised issues such as the role of nongovernmental organizations in strengthening ASEAN, the possibility of economic winners and losers among the ASEAN member states after integration, the role of ASEAN in coordinating disaster management, and the effects that the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement and growing social media use will have on ASEAN’s future. The entire discussion was recorded and can be found here.

Q&A with U.S. Ambassador to Indonesia Robert Blake

robert Blake The Asia Foundation hosted four U.S. ambassadors to Asia at its headquarters in San Francisco on October 9 for “ASEAN Matters,” a panel discussion on why Asia is crucial to the United States’ economic growth. In Asia editor Alma Freeman sat down with U.S. Ambassador to Indonesia Robert Blake to discuss Indonesia’s priorities under Joko Widodo, controversy over direct elections, fuel subsidies, and U.S.-Indonesia relations.

After a lively and hotly contested election year, on October 20 Indonesia inaugurated former Jakarta governor, Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, as new president. What are your thoughts on the election?

I think that Jokowi is going to be a breath of fresh air for the country. He is the first elected president who does not come from the military or from one of the political factions. He comes from outside the system – much like Barack Obama. He’s also one of the first Indonesian candidates to successfully use social media, both as a campaign tool and to raise money. It will be interesting to watch his success at mobilizing the people around some of the difficult issues that Indonesia faces, particularly as he still has opposition in the Parliament. His ability to navigate that and go directly to the people will be very important to watch.

Some say that the upcoming transition of power will be a pivotal point for Indonesia’s future, signifying a new phase of Indonesian governance. Can you talk about some of Indonesia’s challenges, and how you see new leadership addressing these challenges?

Indonesia has made amazing progress since the dark days of 1998 when the economy contracted by 14 percent and there were so many problems on their periphery. Indonesia has become one of the fastest growing economies in the G20 over the last several years, and is a vibrant democracy with a tolerant society. This is very important as global leaders seek to confront ISIL and the challenges it poses around the world.

As we look ahead, Jokowi is challenged with consolidating that progress, particularly to get growth rates back up to 7 percent so the country can begin to make a dent in poverty. There are still 100 million people who live on less than $2 a day in Indonesia. Jokowi is squarely set on achieving not only growth but inclusive growth and to do that, his administration will need to address some of the longer term challenges, like bringing education up to world class standards at all levels. He has announced that he wants to raise mandatory schooling from the current 9th grade through to 12th grade. But even more importantly, they need to raise the quality of Indonesia’s universities and increase the number of polytechnic, or community colleges, out in the provinces that can closely tie in to the needs of the local economy. The country has set the goal to establish universal health care by 2020, but there is a great distance to travel to get there. If Indonesia can meet these challenges, it will be poised to be one of the leading countries of the 21st century.

Last month, Indonesia’s Parliament passed a bill that would end direct elections for over 500 local-level political offices. What is your reaction to this move?

I was struck by the immediate and vehement reaction by the Indonesian people to this decision. I think that then President Yudhoyono was himself shocked at the reaction and subsequently took steps to reverse his own decision. It’s not clear whether this bill is going to pass, and we’re also not clear on the constitutional aspects of this yet. Once Jokowi is in office and if these other measures haven’t passed, then I think he will try to reverse the bill once he can get majority support in Parliament. Most people I’ve talked to expect that he’ll be able to get at least a slim parliament majority – not right away, but sometime in the next several months as he announces his programs and his popularity becomes clearer.

Do you see this as an isolated political issue or some kind of a trend?

I think this is an isolated issue. The trend in Indonesia is very much in favor of democratization and we’ve all followed with admiration the growth of social media – my favorite statistic is that 2 percent of all the world’s tweets everyday come out of Jakarta alone, which shows just how wired Indonesians are. The reaction to this bill shows that democracy is alive and well in Indonesia.

President Jokowi has announced plans to overhaul his country’s fuel subsidy programs to free up budget funds for infrastructure, agriculture, healthcare, and education.

We support him 100 percent in his goal in removing the fuel subsidies, not only because it creates artificial pricing for alternative kinds of energy and discourages things like renewable energy but also because these subsidies consume 18 percent of the budget, whereas infrastructure only consumes 8 percent. Jokowi has tried to cast this as not removing energy subsidies, as much as redirecting them to these other needs. He is also very focused on creating a safety net so that the very poorest of the poor will not be affected by these subsidies.

Where do you see U.S.-Indonesia relations today?

We expect to see continuity in our bilateral relationship – we’ve had a tremendous growth in our relations over the last several years – headlined by the visit of President Obama in 2010 to Indonesia and the establishment of the Comprehensive Partnership. Indonesia is an increasingly important partner in many respects, from promoting democracy through the Bali Democracy Forum to its contribution to some of the toughest peacekeeping operations around the world. It also has an increasingly important role to play on strategic issues like the South China Sea. ASEAN is taking the lead in trying to negotiate a code of conduct with China, and Indonesia’s role has been paramount in this.

You’ve also served in Tunisia and Egypt in the 1980s and ’90s – hotspots for the Arab Spring unrest that began in 2010. How would you compare those environments to Indonesia today?

As I compare the Indonesia now to the Tunisia and Egypt that I knew then, the main difference is the level of responsive government. In both Tunisia and Egypt, you had elites living openly lavish lifestyles which obviously spoke to a great deal of corruption, and large numbers of unemployed people who were angry that they did not have an opportunity society, and who thought their government was unresponsive to their needs and welfare. By contrast, while Indonesia certainly has issues with corruption and poverty, what separates it is that Indonesia has a very open democracy, and the government is seeking to be responsive to its citizens. When problems emerge, people are out right away on social media talking about what they want to do about it. Indonesia is more and more an opportunity society – you don’t have that same kind of anger where no matter what you do you’re not going to get ahead because the system is stacked against you. In Indonesia there’s a sense of exciting entrepreneurial ventures taking place and we’re happy to try and nurture that.

Figures show that the percentage of people living in urban areas in Indonesia is almost 50 percent, or around 118 million out of 237 million people. What do you see as the biggest challenges in urban and rural development moving forward?

There’s a limit to what an urban area like Jakarta can absorb. Already the greater Jakarta area encompasses 27 million people – second only to greater Tokyo. Having been the governor of Jakarta, President Jokowi is very attuned to the challenges of urbanization, and that’s why he’s very focused on not only diversifying the economy, but also spreading the wealth beyond Java – particularly to the poorest areas of eastern Indonesia – through maritime development. He has talked about building a series of ports all over the archipelago to take advantage of the fact that two-thirds of this country is water. Indonesia has a strategic imperative to first bring down costs to create incentives so that people want to trade with each other – now it’s cheaper to import an orange from China than it is from Sumatra. That obviously has to change.

Secondly, it’s important to develop islands that are farther away from Java so you have stronger poles of economic activity. Once the infrastructure is developed in some of these areas, building up the manufacturing sector will be critical. This is one of the country’s longer term challenges – to move from a resource-based economy to a more manufactured-based economy because that is going to create long term sustainable jobs and will help raise growth rates to 7 or 8 percent and lift large numbers of people out of poverty. It’s also important to move away from a model where you’re deforesting most of your natural resources, releasing tremendous amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. One of our top priorities is to work with the private sector – mostly palm oil companies – to get them to stop clearing of primary forests and to only plant on previously degraded land, and to stop altogether the clearing of peat land. We were very happy to hear at the most recent UN General Assembly there was an important agreement on this, which is a big step forward. But these are the kinds of things that are going to have to be multiplied. Commodity prices go up and down so commodity exports alone will not provide a long-term basis for sustainable growth.

One Year After Bohol Earthquake, Partnerships Thrive Amid Rehabilitation Efforts

One year ago today, an earthquake reported to have the energy equivalent of 32 Hiroshima bombs struck Bohol and nearby provinces in south central Philippines. Generated from a fault in the northwestern sector of Bohol Island, the earthquake registered 7.2 on the Richter scale according to the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology.

The devastation in Bohol was extensive. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) situational report indicated there were 209 deaths, 877 injured, eight missing, and a total of 1,255,128 individuals and 261,491 families affected. Bridges collapsed and there was extensive damage to historical churches, homes (71,885 total), roads, irrigation, and flood control structures. The NDRRMC estimated the cost of damage to public infrastructure at nearly $31 million. Bohol residents were left without power for several weeks.

Bohol Earthquake

The NDRRMC estimated the cost of damage from the Bohol earthquake to public infrastructure at nearly $31 million. Photo/Flickr user Torben Bruhn

Immediate emergency response focused on restoring communications and responding to incoming emergency calls and damage reports, emergency medical situations, search and rescue, and financial assistance to victims. Early recovery efforts, meanwhile, focused on restoring basic services, infrastructure, and livelihoods. In both of these response phases, government efforts were complemented by initiatives from the private sector, local non-government organizations, and international organizations, including shelter assistance and distribution of food packs, water, and hygiene and water sanitation kits. Social media served as an important tool for mobilizing resources and volunteers.

Less than a month after the earthquake, typhoon Yolanda (international name Haiyan) struck the same region. Though Bohol was generally spared the worst of Yolanda’s wrath, it had a strong impact on response efforts. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) noted that many government and international humanitarian resources were removed from Bohol to address needs caused by Yolanda. Power restoration also took longer because Bohol sources its electricity from the geothermal plant in Leyte, a province badly hit by typhoon Yolanda.

Despite the double disasters, local government, civil society, and the private sector remained committed to long-term recovery and rehabilitation. Local partnerships remained strong, a demonstration of the Filipinos’ adaptability, bayanihan (community spirit), and damayan (helping each other). The advanced state of current rehabilitation efforts in Bohol is a testament to the impact of these local partnerships.

One year on, partners are now focused on restoration of the local economy and livelihood. In a survey conducted in April 2014 by the Bohol Poll of the Holy Name University, with support from The Asia Foundation, 44 percent of respondents said that their most important problem is economic in nature such as unemployment, financial hardship, and high cost and scarcity of food. Access to public services like public works and potable water closely followed (about 24%).

One program seeking to address these issues of livelihood and economic development is the Philippines-Australia Community Assistance Program (PACAP). For example, one PACAP project is helping to cultivate sustainable agriculture livelihoods, mainly vegetable production and sawali (native bamboo slats used for walling) that can provide additional income streams for communities. This is done through partnerships among community-based organizations, non-government organizations, and local governments in Bohol.

The Asia Foundation is supporting another initiative to provide out-of-school youth with links to program interventions from various government agencies as well as with private partners who are willing to provide and support education and skills training that could eventually lead to economic and employment opportunities. This initiative, under the Foundation’s Coalitions for Change program supported by the Australian Embassy in the Philippines, partners with the provincial and municipal governments, Department of Education, and the National Youth Commission. As a result, 25,000 out of school youths have been identified in Bohol and the program has been subsequently expanded to cover the rest of the Philippines.

The earthquake also affected Bohol’s tourism industry, a strong driver of the local economy. Department of Tourism (DOT) records show tourist arrivals went down by 15 percent in the last quarter of 2013 compared to the previous year; 2014 records also show a decline of 8.5 percent to 209,634 for January to June from 229,138 in the same period last year. The United Nations World Tourism Organization, the DOT, the United States Agency for International Development under its Advancing Philippine Competitiveness Project (COMPETE), and the Pacific Asia Travel Association collaborated to develop a Bohol Tourism Recovery Plan. This plan seeks to identify strategies that will market the province to visitors from around the world, as well as develop new tourism products to strengthen Bohol’s position as an eco-cultural destination. According to the DOT, the plan aims to remove the residual fears of tourists about the viability of post-earthquake Bohol and increase resiliency among local enterprises.

Another main area of support in the rehabilitation phase is enhancing the capacities of communities and local governments to respond to and manage disaster and disaster risks. Three upcoming PACAP projects will train communities in Bohol to undertake vulnerability assessments and formulate and implement disaster management plans. These projects are consistent with the priorities of the Bohol Earthquake Action Plan prepared by the UNOCHA and the Post-Great Bohol Earthquake Rehabilitation Plan prepared by the provincial government.

With local civil society, businesses, and government partnerships thriving and bridging the recovery and rehabilitation phase, Bohol is now back on track one year after the earthquake.

Jowil Plecerda is a program officer for The Asia Foundation’s Coalitions for Change program in the Philippines. He can be reached at [email protected]. The views and opinions expressed here are those of the individual author and not those of The Asia Foundation.

Water Scarcity a Threat to Mongolia’s Sustainable Development

Asia Foundation 60th anniversary seriesA new report from the Asian Development Bank sent a warning signal to Mongolia that, despite its wealth of natural resources and pristine image, the country faces a severe water scarcity and quality crisis – one that could leave its growing capital, Ulaanbaatar, faced with water shortage as early as 2015.

Mongolia landscape

Despite its wealth of natural resources and pristine image, Mongolia faces a severe water scarcity and quality crisis. Photo/Jon Jamieson

Outside of the capital, Mongolia’s rural residents are also under threat. As a result of climate change, hundreds of Mongolia’s lakes and rivers have dried up, and there is significant desertification of land especially in the south around the Gobi desert. Water sources are unevenly distributed within the landlocked nation, with abundant surface water resources located in northern Mongolia, but which are inaccessible for the drier central and southern parts of the country that lack water sources. As a result, Mongolia has a high reliance on groundwater resources which accounted for 80 percent of all freshwater consumed in 2010, according to the recent ADB report. Water is crucial not only for daily consumption by the people and for herders to maintain their livestock, but also for Mongolia’s economic development as an essential resource for industries such as the mining sector, which has driven the country’s economic growth. Reconciling these competing interests is a challenge, and conflicts over water can put increasing pressure on the already limited resources.

Apart from water scarcity, water quality is also a worrying concern with herding, mining, and urban development posing threats to public health. In the northern province of Mongolia, Khuvsgul, home to one of the largest fresh water lakes in Asia as well as a wide network of rivers, many communities live in remote areas that lack basic water supply infrastructure. A survey conducted by The Asia Foundation in 2013 under its Environmental Protection and HWTS pilot project implemented in 12 soums of Khuvsgul aimag, showed that residents in the soums almost exclusively collect drinking water from sources outside the home and that half came from unprotected lakes and rivers. The survey also found that most unprotected sources are exposed to significant levels of contamination from proximal human waste, livestock, and seasonal flooding. The survey also found that nearly two-thirds of all households do not treat their drinking water. The majority of households collect drinking water in closed plastic or metal containers, but store water in open or partially open containers. While about two-thirds of households clean their drinking water collection and storage containers at least once per week, it is likely that many household containers are sources of contamination as a result of inadequate cleaning and disinfection.

In the remote soum of Tsagaan-Uur in Khusvsgul, the majority of households obtain water from the river to fulfill their daily living needs. However, the quality of water is increasingly threatened by pollutants from animal husbandry and waste disposal. To monitor the quality of the water in the area, the Foundation recently established a water quality monitoring group consisting of citizens, teachers, water guardians, local health inspectors, and other officials to protect the local river and test water quality on a frequent basis. In addition, to raise awareness among households, parents, teachers, children, and local government officials, we organized a training on household water treatment systems to improve their water, sanitation, and hygiene behavior.

According to Enkhtsetseg Bazarsad, a member of a herder family and one of the participants in the training for households, deteriorating water quality is especially an issue in the summer when the rivers are not frozen and therefore more exposed to external pollutants. “During the winter months, we live higher up in the mountains and collect water by piercing a hole in the ice or crushing the ice itself, and water tends to be purer. In the summer months, we collect water every day from the river in jerry cans as we live outside the soum center without any access to a water well,” she said. As a result of the HWTS training, she now filters water through a cotton cloth or by boiling it before usage. Further awareness raising is needed within the broader community to sensitize people on the health hazards of drinking unsafe water, and for this purpose, the Foundation together with the National Public Health Center is developing a strategy to change behavior which will be implemented this fall.

Water quantity and quality is also becoming a problem increasingly in the capital Ulaanbaatar. With nearly 50 percent of the population living in Ulaanbaatar, ensuring that there is sufficient and safe water for everyone is a challenge. As a result of climate change and increased water substraction, the streamflow of the Tuul river, which feeds the acquifer that supplies most of the water for Ulaanbaatar, is shrinking. Especially in the outer districts, many residents lack a connection to the central water supply network and have to make use of water kiosks to purchase water or get their water directly from the river. In the outer area of Nailakh district, this is especially a problem as in the absence of proper water sewage systems, sewage gets disposed of in the river affecting households living downstream. To empower the local communities to be better able to protect their existing water sources, treat, and safely store water to ensure it is safe for consumption, the Foundation is expanding its pilot project to Ulaanbaatar’s Nailakh district. It is expected that the pilot project in Khusvgul and Nailakh will provide valuable lessons learned to inform national level policy decision-making on the protection and treatment of Mongolia’s precious water sources.

The Asia Foundation’s Environmental Protection and Household Water Treatment Systems pilot project in Khuvsgul and Nailakh is funded by UNICEF.

Tirza Theunissen is The Asia Foundation’s deputy country representative in Mongolia. She can be contacted at [email protected]. The views and opinions expressed here are those of the individual author and not those of The Asia Foundation.

A Conversation with Chinese Fellow, Environmental NGO Leader Lican Liu

Asia Foundation 60th anniversary seriesIn Asia editor Alma Freeman recently interviewed co-founder and Director of Programs and Communications at the Greenovation Hub, a grassroots NGO that focuses on LicanLiuenvironmental protection and innovation in China. Liu was selected as one of the inaugural 2014 Asia Foundation Development Fellows and is currently in San Francisco for the Foundation’s “2014 Asia Foundation Development Forum: Challenges and Voices for Asia’s Future.”

China recently passed sweeping revisions to its Environmental Protection Law that aim to take a tough stance against industrial polluters. What are your thoughts on this development?

The new Environmental Protection Law, which will come into force in 2015, is really encouraging – at least on paper. Despite some shortcomings, I have to say that it still exceeds my expectations. At the same time, we have to keep in mind that the current revisions came from many rounds of discussions that took place over 10 years. This long tug of war indicates that parts of the government are still more concerned that environment protection could become an obstacle to economic growth.

Also changes in a law do not necessarily lead to changes in behavior. The actual implementation of the new law is key to real change. However, implementation can be problematic. For example, there has been a regulation on environmental information disclosure for several years, yet many local environmental protection bureaus still do not follow the regulation.

We need to observe how local governments implement the law, as that will be critical to its success. Since the law has promised the right of information, monitoring, and participation, it is always good for NGOs to encourage or push local governments to disclose environmental information, organize hearings, punish polluting sources, recover polluted areas, and rescue environmental victims. The law also makes it clear that NGOs can file lawsuits on polluting sources that do not take their responsibilities. It is a relatively recent phenomenon that NGOs can contribute to putting more pressure on local governments to help them implement the law.

As we look to the next UN Global Climate Change conference in Paris next year, which plans to finalize a comprehensive global greenhouse gas reduction protocol for the period beyond 2020, what are some examples of progress and commitments that China has made in reducing emissions and negative impacts on the environment?

In the past several years, China has cut its carbon intensity (CO2 emissions per unit of GDP) by more than 20 percent. In some areas where air pollution is most severe, the central government has demanded that coal usage be reduced.

China has announced that by 2020 it will cut its carbon intensity by 40-45 percent from the 2005 level. Even though this target has been criticized by some other countries and organizations for being too conservative, it still means that China will need to do a great deal to achieve this goal given its strikingly tremendous consumption of resources for its economic growth.

China also aims to develop cleaner technology and sustainable energy. It has been the world’s largest manufacturer of solar panels since 2008 and overtook Germany in 2013 to become the biggest market for solar power. It is also the largest producer and market of wind power. China has a very ambitious development plan on nuclear power and hydropower. Although the latter two are not considered clean or green technology by some environmentalists, it still shows that China wants to cut emissions through technology improvement, energy efficiency, and reduced use of fossil fuels.

Another way that China is looking to reduce CO2 emission is through adjusting its economic structure by promoting the service sector and high-end operations in manufacturing. China has shut down many heavily polluting factories and pushed industries to adopt advanced technologies to meet environmental standards and reduce CO2 emission. Chinese government also tries to increase the service sector’s share in national economy through a series of policies such as tax cut.

Ahead of this global conference, what are China’s biggest priorities related to protecting the environment and natural resources?

Actually climate change is not the biggest priority of China’s environmental protection work. If you consider that there are more than 100 million (the actual number should be more) rural residents who still do not have access to safe drinking water, many areas suffering from severe air pollution, and that food safety is a daily issue, you can understand that the biggest concern among the public and the government is pollution. That’s why in March Premier Li Keqiang declared “a war on pollution.”

We’re also seeing China incorporating new technology role in tackling environmental problems. For example, in the effort to cutting down CO2 emission, China emphasizes developing sustainable energy and improving energy efficiency. China has quite advanced technologies and significant share in the market of photovoltaic, wind tribune, electric automobile, etc. I think that China’s efforts in dealing with climate change and air pollution can somehow showcase to other countries, especially the developing ones, how to balance development and environmental protection and how to embrace technology in the process of rapid industrialization and urbanization.

What are the biggest challenges to grassroots environmental work China?

A lack of skilled workers and sustainable funding are always a problem, which prevents organizations from addressing more critical problems and developing skills like research, advocacy, and communication. But I think this is the case in many developing countries. Particularly in China, there is another big challenge that green groups have to face and cannot easily find a solution: politics. Civil society organizations, including environmental ones of course, are usually considered threats instead of supporters for governance by China’s government. Even though environmental organizations have become one of the most active social sectors, it is still very hard for a green group to register as an NGO or a charity, which hampers the ability to raise money from the public and attract qualified employees. Plus, governments do not want environmental organizations to always monitor their work, criticize their policies, repel polluting industries, and mobilize people. They want to “birdcage” the environmental movement and grassroots organizations by guiding green NGOs to focus more on “soft” topics like environmental education than “hard” topics like fighting against polluting sources.

Can you say a few words about what Greenovation Hub is working on now?

“A Glass of Clean Water” is our star project, which provides safe drinking water solutions to rural areas. Since ordinary people aren’t really aware of their water quality, we also initiated a social enterprise project that produces and sells water-quality testing toolkits to the public. Our policy center focuses on climate change and energy issues through organizing workshops, attending climate change talks, and producing policy briefings. We also created an index to rank cities annually based on their environmental governance and qualities.

One Year After Siege, Zamboanga Critical to Success of Any Peace Agreement

On Sept. 9, 2013, Zamboanga City woke to an unfolding nightmare. Some 200 Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) fighters under the charismatic commander Ustadz Habier Malik had landed. They professed, despite the fact that they were fully armed, an intention merely to have a peaceful march in support of independence for Muslim-dominated areas in the southern Philippines. When government security forces halted their march, MNLF forces took hostages as a string of human shields, tying them together with rope. As a nightmare, this was a recurrence: the same tactic had been used by disaffected MNLF forces in Zamboanga City in 2001, and the resolution involved the captors marching away with their guns, shielded by hostages, and at the end releasing them unharmed (at least.)

In 2013 this was not to be. Government leaders decided not to negotiate, and the result was a drawn-out siege. Nineteen days later, 208 MNLF fighters had been killed (reportedly including Commander Malik), and 280 arrested. Twelve civilians were killed, including four of the hostages. Twenty-five members of the security forces died in the fighting. Five barangays (villages) were razed, some 10,000 houses destroyed, and some 120,000 people (mostly Muslims) displaced into makeshift shelters, the city’s grandstand, a seaside boulevard, and residences scattered throughout the city.

Zamboanga conflict

A view of battle-scarred Lustre Street in the center of Zamboanga City in the aftermath of fighting. Photo/Jowel Canuday

The one-year anniversary in 2014 was the occasion for considerable coverage. Al Jazeera’s Jamela Alindogan and the NGO Peace Advocates Zamboanga traced the events of the siege while other outlets such as AFP and Rappler covered the plight of those still displaced. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reports that some 26,000 people are still in evacuation centers or transitional housing – with plans to move them all to the latter by December. Some 5,400 families are then to be accommodated in permanently built units, but that does not include some 1,661 packages of Home Materials Assistance that are meant to assist residents in self-repair. While in aggregate numbers this would cover those openly displaced, it does not include home-based displaced persons, which OCHA admits are hard to estimate and reach with services. It is clear that not all displaced residents will be allowed to return – the villages were largely informal settlements and in site preparation for residents’ return area will be devoted to streets wide enough for fire trucks, drainage to improve sanitation, access ways for bridges, walkways, and security outposts.

The city government, for its part, commemorated the anniversary on September 9 with a series of events: groundbreaking for residential “houses on stilts” in barangay Mariki for those who prefer to live on the sea; turnover of permanent housing units in barangay Sta. Catalina so that residents could return; an art exhibit produced by hundreds of children who had undergone workshops for psychosocial healing, and an ecumenical service honoring both the security forces and the hostages that included Muslim, Protestant, and Catholic speakers. Under the theme of “Build Back Better Zamboanga,” the aim of the day was to convey hope and progress in the face of unsatisfactory living conditions for displaced persons and the slow progress of return to their coastal communities.

Zamboanga siege anniversary

Under the theme of “Build Back Better Zamboanga,” the aim of the anniversary event was to convey hope and progress in the face of unsatisfactory living conditions for displaced persons and the slow progress of return to their coastal communities. Above, a housing resettlement plan for displaced residents in Zamboanga. Photo/Jason Reyes

But all of this examination covers just one year, from the beginning of the siege to its commemoration. Understanding the significance of what has happened requires a longer perspective.

First, the motivation for the incursion – whether or not it was originally meant as peaceful – was MNLF dissatisfaction with the implementation of their 1996 “Final Peace Agreement” with the government, in the face of rapid progress in negotiations with the rival Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). The Philippine Congress is now considering a bill that would institute a revamped “Bangsamoro” political entity to replace the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (which the MNLF ran for five or nine years depending on how you count after the 1996 agreement). In the meantime, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation still backs the MNLF as the representative of Muslims in the Philippines, and in June 2014 said that the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro with the MILF was only a “partial implementation” of the 1996 Final Peace Agreement. In short, no progress has been made in reconciling the various elements of the MNLF to progress being made with the MILF.

Second, while considerable controversy attends the decision not to negotiate with Ustadz Malik, but rather to fight it out, the basic disposition to resist armed Muslim incursion is rooted in history. Muslims are not totally marginalized – 31 of the 98 barangays are headed by Muslims, and three members of the city council are Muslims. But the many Muslims fleeing from the Sulu archipelago over four decades of armed conflict settled in a city with a distinct character. For centuries Zamboanga was the bastion of Spanish colonial power in the southern Philippines, to the extent that the language spoken, Chavacano, is a creole language based on Spanish. And, as noted, only a dozen years before a similar hostage-taking incident had occurred as a result of MNLF dissatisfaction with how the 1996 Final Peace Agreement was being implemented. Thus, there is an allergy to being included in a peace process with Moros – just last month the city turned down a JICA-funded project in Sacol Island because it was being implemented by the development arm of the MILF, the Bangsamoro Development Agency. Sacol Island was among the areas covered under the ill-fated 2008 Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain (which was invalidated by the Supreme Court amid an upsurge of separatist violence). Zamboanga City has been adamant that no part is to be included in the Bangsamoro settlement, though it wishes Muslim-dominated areas well as they negotiate the new arrangement.

Even though it will not be part of the Bangsamoro territorial coverage, Zamboanga City is crucial to the success of any peace agreement for a number of reasons. The treatment of Muslim displaced persons needs to justify faith of the Muslim community that they are welcome in the larger Philippine nation. If a “Latin City” is seen as not caring sufficiently for its Muslim inhabitants, it strengthens the case for separatism. Economically, as an entrepôt sandwiched between the mainland hinterland of the Zamboanga Peninsula and the Muslim-dominated Sulu Archipelago, the city provides a vital link in value chains and trade routes. Culturally it is vibrant, and potentially a demonstration of the benefits of pluralism and tolerance.

Leadership, both from the city government and the various communities and peoples of Zamboanga, will be needed to fulfill potential and avoid pitfalls. The glass as of today is indeed half-empty if you look at the continuing plight of those displaced, and half-full if you look at progress that is finally being made at repairing lives. Much rides on how fast the water level rises.

Steven Rood is The Asia Foundation’s country representative in the Philippines. From 2009-2013 he observed negotiations between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front as the Foundation’s representative on the International Contact Group. Since 2013 he has been a member of the Third Party Monitoring Team, overseeing the implementation of agreements. He tweets as @StevenRoodPH, and can be reached at [email protected]. The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and not those of The Asia Foundation.

Asia Foundation Analyzes Ethnic Conflicts in Myanmar

On September 9, 2014 The Asia Foundation’s Washington office hosted a forum on the findings of its recently released study, Ethnic Conflict and Social Services in Myanmar’s Contested Regions. The author of the report, Mr. Kim Jolliffe, presented key findings on the influence aid for social services on ethnic conflicts and peacebuilding in Myanmar’s contested regions.

The study explores the role of foreign aid to social services, including education and healthcare, in relation to the current peace process; analyzes the significance of collaboration between the state and ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) to peacebuilding; and provides broad guidance on how international aid agencies can direct social service spending to support peace and avoid further exacerbating conflicts.

Mr. Jolliffe described patron-client relations between Burmese-led leadership and non-Burmese populations to analyze conflict dynamics and explained that the core drivers of conflict are related to armed actors’ roles in governance. The cases of Mon National Education (MNE) and Karen Healthcare were used to emphasize the importance of coordination efforts among the state, EAO-linked service providers, community systems, and aid actors, which could improve the quality of service provision and support the institutional evolution. Mr. Jolliffe provided guidance to aid actors on strengthening existing capacities for cooperation to domestic service providers and on enhancing relations between state and EAO-linked service providers. Important emerging issues to pay attention to include the expanding of state services to areas without administration; allowing INGOs to build schools, clinics, and other basic services in specific contested areas; and the government taking control of EAO or community schools without discussion – which may harm and challenge the confidence, trust, and the cooperation in peace process – were also explored.

Hadee Hamidong awarded The William P. Fuller Fellowship in Conflict Resolution

Recognized as one of the most effective and influential youth leaders in Thailand’s conflict-affected southern border provinces, Mr. Hadee Hamidong is an independent consultant whose professional activities have focused on peace building programs. He enjoys close working relationships with key local stakeholders in the Deep South, including religious, secular, youth and civil society leaders as well as academic specialists. Mr. Hamidong has assisted several key local organizations to develop conflict mitigation and related programs and raise funds. He recently served as co-producer of the Asia Foundation-funded local radio program Dunia Hari Ini (The World Today), which served as a media forum through which audiences in the Deep South learned about and engaged in discussions on issues related to the peace dialogue between the Government of Thailand and the BRN insurgent faction that emerged unexpectedly in 2013. In his previous work as a program officer with The Asia Foundation, Mr. Hamidong managed peace building and community empowerment programs in the southern border provinces. Hamidong also helped to produce the award-winning Let’s Talk Rights television talk show on ThaiPBS.

To complement his practical work experience on conflict, governance, and related issues, Mr. Hamidong’s fellowship has enabled him to study the theoretical and academic foundations of conflict mitigation and peace building at the Washington Semester Program of American University.

This tribute reflects the organization’s long-standing interest in the field and Dr. Fuller’s personal concern for furthering the professional development of a cadre of young Asians with leadership potential and a commitment to advancing knowledge and experience regarding the management of sub-national conflicts.The fellowship award supports a six-month professional affiliation with a relevant institution in the U.S. arranged by The Asia Foundation. The program may also include visits to selected cities in the US and in some cases, Asia, for additional meetings with specialists.