In Asia: Weekly Insight and Features from Asia

The euphoria that greeted Thailand’s military coup on September 19, 2006, which ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, has largely dissipated. During the coup, General Sonthi Boonyaratkalin and other members of the Council for National Security (CNS) appeared to be decent men trying to strengthen democracy in Thailand after Thaksin’s emasculation of democratic reforms embodied in the 1997 constitution. The army pledged to restore democracy by rewriting a new constitution and holding elections within a year. Moreover, the people selected to serve in the interim government, headed by former General Surayud Chulanont, was meant to show that although members of the government would be compliant with the military’s wishes, they would be highly competent in managing Thailand’s political, security and economic affairs.

But Bangkok was stunned on New Year’s Eve when eight bombs exploded across the city, including at the location for the city’s largest New Year’s festivities. The bombings killed three people and injured 40. In the past, explosions in Bangkok were meant to cause unrest. But these bombings were purposely meant to cause physical harm, and to show that the interim government, which is strongly backed by the Thai military, is incompetent in providing security in the capital.

The government has been quick to accuse the former Thaksin government as the culpable party. However, no evidence has been produced that would implicate the former prime minister or any of his associates. Thaksin has denied any involvement in the bombings and has alleged that Muslim insurgents in southern Thailand, where bombings happen daily, are expanding their targets to include Bangkok. Although the bombs used in the Bangkok bombings are similar to those used in the southern insurgency, an attack in Bangkok by Muslim insurgents seems improbable given the organizational, logistical, and financial requirements they lack in the capital to carry out such bombings.

Difficulties dogged the military-supported government even before the Bangkok bombings. The government has failed to take swift action in investigating allegations of corruption and conflict of interest by Thaksin and his associates. Some actions regarding Thailand’s economy have also have cast doubt on the interim government’s policy-making competence. The Thai Central Bank’s plans to limit the amount of money that could be withdrawn by foreign investors caused the Thai stock exchange to drop by 15 percent.

In December, the interim government established a 100 person constitution drafting assembly (CDA) to draft a constitution that will be put to a referendum in late 2007. Some supporters of the CNS are advocating that the new proposed constitution includes a clause stating that the prime minister need not be elected or have an appointed senate. If these are included, the same protestors who welcomed the coup as an “unfortunate necessity” in 2006 will be protesting against the same coup leaders in 2007.

Who will be able to contest the elections and who might govern Thailand afterwards? Both Thaksin’s former “Thai Rak Thai” party and the Democrat Party, the country’s major opposition, face a trial this week for obstructing campaigning during the controversial April 2006 elections. Though both parties deny any wrongdoing, if found guilty either one or both of these parties could be dissolved. As Mr. Thaksin and 30 leaders have already resigned from the party, “Thai Rak Thai” has pretty much already dissolved.

And what is to become of Thaksin Shinawatra? Since the September 19th coup, he has remained outside of Thailand, fearing likely arrest. As Thailand’s wealthiest person, Mr. Thaksin is traveling to China, Singapore, and elsewhere around Asia. Although these trips are described as private ones, the interim government and the CNS fear they are politically motivated. Thaksin is highly unpopular in Bangkok and southern Thailand, but his popularity remains high with a majority of Thais in rural areas, mostly because of his policies of cheap health care and government assistance for villages.

Thailand in 2007 remains a nation divided between the rural poor who strongly supported Mr. Thaksin and the urban middle class who demanded his ouster. The interim government’s ability to bring about national reconciliation will be tested. Writing a new constitution will be the country’s biggest challenge. Despite flaws, the 1997 Thai constitution is considered the best ever. It would be smarter to revise areas of the constitution viewed as the weakest as opposed to drafting a new charter from scratch. But whatever is decided, Thailand is likely to experience more political instability, and perhaps even violence, in 2007.