In the Philippines: “Racing” Toward the May 14th Elections
Steven Rood is The Asia Foundation’s Country Representative in the Philippines.
Media coverage of Filipino elections tends to focus, as it does all over the world, on immediate issues, such as who is winning the “horse race” – in this case, between supporters and opponents of President Glorial Macapagal-Arroyo. At the Senatorial level (where 12 seats are at stake) the slates are agglomerations of strange bedfellows, but are at least clearly labeled as “Team Unity” (the Arroyo supporters) and “Genuine Opposition”. Predictions by the two organizations that do scientific public opinion surveys, Social Weather Stations and Pulse Asia, are that opponents of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo will win a majority of seats in the Senate. Survey results generally show the Genuine Opposition picking up two or three more seats than Team Unity, while a couple of Independents not affiliated with either group are also in contention for entry into the top twelve.
On the other hand, as even the Genuine Opposition admits, Arroyo supporters will sweep the House of Representatives. The Genuine Opposition has not fielded a sufficient number of candidates to have any chance of ensuring even one-third of the seats in the lower house, which is what is needed to launch an impeachment bid against President Arroyo (attempts failed in both 2005 and 2006). This is not to say that Congressional seats are going uncontested, but the contests are often among elements of the President’s coalition – particularly between Lakas (the party of House Speaker de Venecia and former President Fidel Ramos) and Kampi (the party of the President herself).
What is missed in this portrayal of more-or-less arbitrary division into “parties” (which are weak in the Philippines and always subject to switching) is that nationwide elections for Senate (and, prospectively in 2010 for President and Vice President) attract particular kinds of candidates: media celebrities. Since individual candidates’ names do not appear on the ballot, voters who want to support particular individuals tend to gravitate toward celebrities and write-in famous names. Media celebrities of all sorts — movie stars, spouses of movie stars, newscasters, sports figures, long-standing professional politicians, and scions of already famous families — have a chance at winning a seat when citizens all over the archipelago can vote. Local elections – whether for Congressional district seats or for offices in local governments – are won on local factors. These local factors can range the entire gamut from good governance and service delivery, to intimidation and vote buying.
This difference in electoral processes is central to the long-standing debate on constitutional change to a unicameral parliamentary system, since such a change would entirely abolish nationwide elections. Naturally members of Congress are among the most vocal supporters of such a change – ultimate nationwide political power would then reside in those who can win local elections. Senators and those who think they can win the nationwide Presidential contest in 2010 are just as opposed to solidifying the influence of purely local factors.
Another “race” in this election is that of the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) for restored credibility. In the wake of the 2005 “Hello Garci” scandal about the 2004 Presidential Election, citizen trust in the COMELEC (as measured by Social Weather Stations) fell to its lowest level. For the May 14 elections, COMELEC has exerted efforts to redeem its reputation by better planning and execution of the electoral process and – particularly through its Election Information Division – letting people know about it. Director James Jimenez has devised ways to use “blog” technology to post COMELEC activities on line, to make information such as the voters list available electronically, and to reach out to TV talk shows and other fora. He even has his own personal blog where he comments on issues of the day – often discussing accusations against the COMELEC.
Such efforts may be bearing fruit. As the election season wears on, citizen trust in the COMELEC has clawed its way back up to what has been the average level for the past 15 years. Filipinos are optimistic when giving their opinions, willing to give the benefit of the doubt to leaders and institutions, so each election year trust in COMELEC does go up before the election as preparations begin to seep into the news. The real test of the credibility of the COMELEC comes after the election. Will the process of counting the votes and proclaiming the winners vindicate COMELEC?
UPDATE: As noted last week, an issue dominating the media is election violence. The total killed thus far is now 95 (10 candidates, 40 other politicians, 34 supporters and 11 bystanders). 148 died in the 2004 presidential elections and 111 in the 2001 midterm elections.
