Dramatic Changes Unlikely Following Afghan Elections
William S. Cole is The Asia Foundation’s Senior Director for Governance, Law, and Civil Society. He can be reached at bcole@asiafound.org.
The Afghanistan Presidential election being held this week, with a possible October run-off, will have a winner. But, whoever that winner is and whatever policy redirection may be in store, dramatic changes on the ground are unlikely.
Despite the political rhetoric inherent in all democratic electioneering, the next President – whether Hamid Karzai, Abdullah Abdullah, Ashraf Ghani, or any of three dozen other candidates – will take the reins of a nation with few if any game-changing opportunities ahead. The problem is that real policy options, the ones faced every day on the ground in Afghanistan, have never been as many or a varied as they have appeared from a distance. Despite over-inflated expectations, the outcomes in terms of peace and reconstruction were always going to be slower and more mixed than initially hoped. That’s not to say that mistakes, big ones, were not made on all sides, domestic and international. No question, the people of Afghanistan deserve better government. But how much better could it have been and can it be, given that policy making in this country is always more messy, murky, and limited than it appears in hindsight. That fact will not change no matter who is sitting in the Presidential Palace after September.
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