In Asia: Weekly Insight and Features from Asia

“The choice of an electoral system must not be taken lightly. … Far too often in transitional or developing settings, the choice of a system is the work of a lamentably small group of people who then enshrine their decision in a constitution adopted after a sketchy public debate held in a context where few have a full grasp of the long-term significance of electoral-system design,” writes The Asia Foundation’s director for Elections and Political Processes, Timothy M. Meisburger, in a new article, “Getting Majoritarianism Wrong,” published in the January issue of Journal of Democracy. Meisburger, who wrote the article while on sabbatical as a World Learning Democracy Fellow at the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), challenges popular assumptions around electoral systems, particularly that emerging democracies are better off with an electoral system based on proportional representation. Written just as the Arab Spring unrest erupted in the Middle East, Meisburger draws on previous experience with similar democratic transitions in South Africa, Indonesia, and Timor-Leste to examine developing democracies in the Middle East and North Africa. Download the full article.

On Monday, Malaysia’s High Court acquitted opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim of sodomy charges after a highly publicized and controversial 2-year trial. As Malaysia looks to elections in 2013, which are widely expected to be called later this year, In Asia‘s editor, Alma Freeman, interviews Herizal Hazri and Nurshafenath Shaharuddin in The Asia Foundation’s Malaysia office for insight into how the verdict could affect elections, Prime Minister Najib Razak’s recent democratic reforms, what this says about the independence of Malaysia’s judiciary, and more.

How is Anwar Ibrahim’s acquittal being received among the public in Malaysia?  

Overall, the verdict has been received positively by the public in Malaysia. Opinions on what positive effects Anwar’s acquittal could have on the political discourse in the country vary depending on political sympathies: pro-Anwar responses generally hail it as a sign for future reforms and Anwar’s innocence in the matter, while pro-establishment responses mark the verdict as a sign of already existing judicial independence and the liberal-mindedness of the Najib administration. For the general public who are not aligned to either Anwar or Najib’s administration, the verdict presents a hope for a more transparent and mature democracy in Malaysia.

Prime Minister Najib said that the verdict exhibits the independence of Malaysia’s judiciary, and that it “will help extend this transparency to all areas of Malaysian life.” What are your thoughts on this?

It is always reassuring to know that the prime minister is focused on reforms, and there have been bold decisions made recently that could promote better transparency in Malaysia, such as the repeal of the Internal Security Act and three Emergency Ordinances, as well as the formation of the Electoral Reform Select Committee. Certainly, and no doubt, Malaysia is transforming. However, I don’t think Anwar Ibrahim’s acquittal should be viewed as an example of the prime minister’s democratic reforms efforts. This verdict came from the strength of the judiciary’s ability to be impartial in exercising its responsibility to uphold law in Malaysia.

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One of the virtues of a regular exercise at peering into a new year is that you can check your own predictions from the past year. My predictions that I made here for the Philippines in 2011 were correct in three of four instances:

• Peace talks did begin (those with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front had more progress than those with the National Democratic Front).

• The budget system continued to work as the 2012 budget was signed into law in mid-December 2011 (with the government adopting a national payroll system for government employees).

• And, of course, boxer Manny Pacquiao defeated Shane Mosely.

My political prediction, though, that there would be continued concern with factionalism in the administration of President Benigno S. “Noynoy” Aquino III, did not pan out. While there continues to be talk of disruptive internecine feuding among certain groups, there has been relatively little evidence of that beyond the walls of the palace in the past 12 months.

Some of what transpired in 2011 happens so regularly that it does not merit the term “prediction.”  As one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world, when the Philippines is struck by a tragedy of the scope of the recent typhoon Sendong (international name Washi), one is not surprised but can instead try to draw lessons for future preparedness.

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On October 13, President Obama will host President Lee Myung-bak of South Korea for a state visit in Washington. President Lee will also address a joint session of the United States Congress. As only the fifth head of state to be given such full honors by President Obama, one would think that Koreans would follow this summit meeting with their closest ally with great interest. So far, however, it seems that the Korean media and the general public are not paying much attention.

On October 13, President Obama hosts President Lee Myung-bak of South Korea for a state visit in Washington. Photo: Flickr user KOREA.NET

One reason for this apparent low level of interest is that the U.S.-Korea relationship, at least at the official level, is in great shape. The two governments are closely aligned in their policies toward North Korea and other security interests in the region. President Obama has repeatedly praised South Korea for assuming a larger leadership role in the global community – such as hosting a G20 meeting last year and the High Level Forum on Aid in Busan later this year. The one challenging issue that has been linked to this visit is the long-delayed ratification of the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Lee and Obama have advocated for the ratification, and Obama submitted the KORUS FTA, along with FTAs with Panama and Colombia, to the U.S. Congress where it was approved today by a bipartisan majority.

However, U.S. ratification of the FTA may be a mixed blessing for President Lee. He has also pressed the Korean National Assembly to follow U.S. action with swift ratification. But the opposition party and civil society are already mobilizing to call for renegotiation or rejection of the pact, or at least to make the political debate very difficult, as Korean parliamentarians and demonstrators are wont to do.

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In a just-released paper, The Asia Foundation’s director for Elections and Political Processes, Tim Meisburger, examines the changing role of politics in development to find more effective approaches to supporting the development of democratic political parties – one of the priority challenges facing democracy assistance providers today. This paper, the seventh in the Foundation’s “Occasional Paper” series was researched and written while Meisburger was on a World Learning Democracy Fellowship at USAID/DCHA/DRG. Below is an excerpt from the paper:

Often in countries where people feel that democracy has failed to deliver on its promises, the public perception of parties and politicians is extremely negative. Parties and representatives that should be serving the people are – with few exceptions – perceived as ineffectual, self-serving or corrupt. Rather than helping the people achieve their aspirations, parties are seen as standing in the way of their achievement. Parties are perceived as the problem, not the solution.

Growing awareness in the democracy assistance community of this pathology led to the recognition that for democratization to be successful more attention and assistance should be directed to improving political parties. Of course, international assistance for political parties is not new. Although never a very high priority, it has been provided in one form or another for several decades by European and American aid agencies and party institutes. And there is no doubt that some party assistance had been highly useful and effective in some cases; in others it has been perceived as either ineffectual, or tangential to actual priorities for democratization.

Download full paper.

On the eve of Malaysia Day (Sept 16), Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib Razak made his boldest political move to date. In a nationally televised address to the nation, the Prime Minister announced his intention to repeal the controversial Internal Security Act (ISA) along with several other restrictive laws. “The time has come for us to take another step forward, not only in economics and education, but also in upholding democratic principles,” the PM said.

The 50-year-old ISA, established initially to deter communist activity in Malaysia, allows for preventative detention without trial or criminal charges where national security is perceived to be at risk. Since its enactment, the ISA has been used to arrest thousands of people including trade unionists, student leaders, labour activists, political activists, religious groups, academics, and NGO activists. The ISA has been harshly criticized as an outdated instrument used by the government to control public life and suppress open debate. The PM announced that the ISA will be replaced by a law that would incorporate more judicial oversight and limit police powers to detain people for preventative reasons.

Malaysians are surprised and somewhat skeptical. They still remember quite vividly the July 9 protest march when thousands of Malaysians marched in the streets of Kuala Lumpur in support of BERSIH (which means “clean” in Malay), a loose coalition of 62 non-governmental organizations (NGOs) seeking electoral reform. Though the Bersih Rally was relatively mild and orderly when compared with the Arab Spring and the London riots in Tottenham, it was seen by the ruling coalition as an illegal, destabilizing anti-government movement.

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When Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh ascends the ramparts of Old Delhi’s Red Fort on Monday to address the nation on the 64th anniversary of its independence, it will be as a political leader whose government, party, and personal reputation are seriously bruised. This will be Singh’s seventh Independence Day address since becoming prime minister in 2004.

Although Prime Minister Singh continues to be regarded as a man of personal integrity, the scandals on his watch have raised serious questions about his leadership. Photo: Flickr user World Economic Forum.

The speech is an opportunity to review his government’s achievements during the past year, highlight national challenges, and outline a vision for the future. At no point in Singh’s tenure, the longest of any Indian prime minister except Jawaharlal Nehru, has he or his party seemed so embattled.

The immediate problem is a string of high-level corruption scandals that has wracked the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government. A year ago, Singh devoted one line of his Independence Day address to the issue of corruption, stating that government programs should be managed “more effectively, minimizing the chances of corruption and misuse of public money.” His reference to systemic corruption gave no hint of the grand corruption that would surface in subsequent months. First came charges of favoritism and kickbacks during preparations for the October 2010 Commonwealth Games in Delhi, which led to the arrest of organizing committee chairman Suresh Kalmadi, a Congress Party stalwart. Next was the Adarsh Housing Society scam where the government was accused of irregularities in allocating expensive apartments in downtown Mumbai. The most debilitating blow was the 2G spectrum scam in which the now jailed telecommunications minister, A. Raja, was charged with under pricing licenses at an estimated cost to the government of a staggering $40 billion in lost revenues.

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Last week, Thailand made history when its parliament elected its first-ever woman Prime Minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, one month after her Pheu Thai party swept the July 3 elections. However, Prime Minister Yingluck’s ability to rise to the top of Thailand’s political echelon is not because of her political acumen. In fact, before last week she had never held political office. But she possesses an extraordinary familial political pedigree as the younger sister of the controversial former Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a military coup in 2006.

Despite being a political novice, Prime Minister Yingluck led her Pheu Thai party to victory July 3. Photo by Chandler Vandergrift.

Despite being a political novice, Prime Minister Yingluck led her Pheu Thai party to victory, winning 265 of 500 seats in the House of Representatives. After its victory, Pheu Thai formed a coalition with five other parties totaling 300 seats, demonstrating a willingness to share power with smaller parties. The only other time in Thai political history that a party won an outright majority was when her brother was prime minister.

While Prime Minister Yingluck and the Pheu Thai won a decisive victory, no one should hold any illusions that the election will end five years of political instability in Thailand. Since the July 3 elections, calm seems to have settled, as every political party has called for national reconciliation. However, deep political cleavages are not far from the surface between the government and Thailand’s established elite.

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On August 3, in a nationally televised speech, Senator Juan Miguel “Migs” Zubiri resigned his seat in the upper house of the Philippine Congress. While he stated emphatically that he did not cheat, or ask anybody else to cheat, when he ran in the 2007 election, Zubiri said that rising speculation and publicity about fraud, new witnesses going public, and an ongoing process at the Senate Electoral Tribunal (SET) were taking a toll on his family. To spare them more trauma, he submitted his resignation and subsequently withdrew all his motions before the SET, allowing the panel to move forward speedily toward proclaiming the other disputant, Aquilino “Koko” Pimentel, III, as the winner.

This is the first time in Philippine history a senator has resigned over an election protest. The Philippines has had elections – and charges of electoral misconduct – at various levels since the late 19th century, so it is hard to know how far back to trace the roots of this problem. However, some coherence is reached by going back 16 years to 1995, when Koko Pimentel’s father, Aquilino “Nene” Pimentel II, also charged that he was cheated.

The year of 1995 saw the first scandal to dent confidence in the Commission on Elections (COMELEC), in the post-Marcos, post-1986 People Power Revolution era. Senators in the Philippines are elected nationwide, with 12 seats being filled every three years for six-year terms to the 24-seat body. Often, very few votes separate the last several seats, and in 1995 Nene Pimentel (who had been senator from 1986 to 1992) charged that he was edged out by a system of dagdag-bawas (add-subtract) during canvassing of votes.

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On July 23, Sri Lanka had the second of three rounds of local government elections planned for this year. Sixty-five councils were up for grabs but the focus of attention was on 20 councils in the Tamil majority Northern Province.

Although not much was at stake in terms of administrative power and financial resources in Sri Lanka's council elections, people still paid close attention because the elections were seen as a popularity test of the UPFA and TNA. Photo by Karl Grobl.

The first round on March 17, was for 234 councils out of a total of 335. The balance will be elected in a third round before the end of the year. In last week’s election, the opposition Tamil National Alliance (TNA) won 15 of 20 councils in the North. The Eelam People’s Democratic Party (EPDP), which ran on the ticket of the ruling coalition, the United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA), won three councils and the Tamil United Liberation Front won two. Combined with the eight councils they won in March, and the Vavuniya Urban Council that it won in a mini election on August 8, 2009, the TNA now controls 24 of 34 councils in the Northern Province. The ruling UPFA won all 45 councils in the Sinhalese majority provinces in the South, adding to the 205 it won on March 17, demonstrating its popularity outside the North.

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