By John J. Brandon

This week Barack Obama will make his first trip to Asia as President of the United States. In addition to paying state visits to China, Japan, and South Korea, President Obama will meet with 20 national leaders in Singapore to attend the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum. Although member countries vary in economic clout individually, APEC economies collectively represent 55 percent of the world’s gross domestic product, 45 percent of global trade, and 40 percent of the world’s population.
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On Thursday, November 5, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace will host and stream live a discussion on President Obama’s trip to Asia next week. Asia Foundation Trustee Douglas Paal, who is Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, will discuss President Obama’s trip with Michael Pettis, a senior associate in the Beijing-based Carnegie China Program, and Taiya Smith, a senior associate in the Carnegie Energy and Climate Program, and the Carnegie China Program. Expected to be among the most important foreign tours during his first year in office, the president will visit Japan, Singapore, China, and South Korea from November 12 through November 19. During the trip he will attend the annual summit of the Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation in Singapore, where he will be the first U.S. leader to hold formal talks with all 10 heads of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Watch the discussion live here at 12:15 p.m. EST on November 5.

On October 23, Douglas Bereuter, President and CEO of The Asia Foundation, delivered the keynote address at a conference hosted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs in Chicago, Illinois. Titled “Implications of the Financial Crisis on American, Chinese, South Korean, and Japanese Soft Power in East Asia,” the October 22-24 conference discussed the effects of the financial crisis on the U.S. and key Asian countries.

The world economy is slowly recovering but the effects of the financial disaster are far-reaching, especially for the U.S. Besides the immediate impact of the crisis on economic growth and employment, there are serious questions about America’s confidence in its global leadership and the future of its relationship with Asia.

On October 23, Douglas Bereuter, President and CEO of The Asia Foundation, will deliver a keynote address at a conference on the effects of the financial crisis on the U.S. and its key Asian allies. Titled “Implications of the Financial Crisis on American, Chinese, South Korean and Japanese Soft Power in East Asia,” the October 22-24 conference will be hosted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs in Chicago, Illinois.

By Daniel Widome

Daniel Widome is a former Junior Associate at The Asia Foundation.

When Lehman Brothers collapsed one year ago, Japan entered the worst of the global financial crisis with a unique perspective. It had experienced its own asset bubble in the late 1980s, and the slowness and inadequacy of its response led to a decade of stagnation and missed economic opportunity. One result of that experience was an abundance of caution. Japanese banks avoided many of the subprime loans that had laid the groundwork for the financial crisis in the United States, and high household savings rates and a favorable balance of trade placed it in a stronger position than many of its G20 peers.
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By Daniel Widome

Daniel Widome is a Junior Associate at The Asia Foundation. He can be reached at dwidome@asiafound.org.

As Japan nears its August 30 election, a mixture of political weariness and anticipation fills the air. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), under the leadership of Prime Minister Taro Aso, is deeply unpopular and trails badly in pre-election polls; its nearly-uninterrupted 54-year reign seems to be in its final days. The opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), led by Yukio Hatoyama, stands poised to win a plurality in the lower house of Japan’s Diet, giving it license to form a new government. A combination of bleak economic conditions and even bleaker political mismanagement has led to this seemingly foregone conclusion. But change doesn’t come easily in Japan. Even if the LDP is ousted on August 30, the political structures and culture that have sustained its lengthy reign will not disappear overnight.
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The economy was at the top of the agenda at the 14th ASEAN summit this past week in Cha-am, Thailand. Just beforehand, on February 26, 2009, Dr. Surin Pitsuwan, Secretary-General of ASEAN and a Trustee of The Asia Foundation, laid out some of the issues at the 2009 ASEAN Business and Investment Summit (ABIS) in Bangkok.

In his remarks, he stated: “Others outside are convinced that ASEAN, in cooperation with the Plus Three countries (China, Japan and Korea), will be another pool of growth and a centre of dynamism post-crisis. A new landscape is being developed with multi-centres; no longer dependent on the United States or Western Europe.”
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By Allen Choate

Allen Choate is based in Tokyo as The Asia Foundation’s Vice President for Partners in Asian Development. He can be reached at achoate@asiafound.org.

The Japanese foreign affairs establishment welcomed Secretary Hillary Clinton’s February 16-18 visit to Tokyo with a strong dose of positive pleasure and a tad of uncertainty–even anxiety.

The country is delighted by the fact that Secretary Clinton chose to make Tokyo her very first stop on her inaugural trip as Secretary of State. The visit has also derived considerable comfort from her recent repeated description of the Japan-U.S. alliance as the “cornerstone of U.S. policy in Asia.” Finally, the Japanese public seems very pleasantly surprised by the widely-reported — but still unconfirmed — news that Professor Joseph Nye of Harvard University, the father of “smart power” and a knowledgeable observer on Japan-U.S. relations, has been offered the role of U.S. Ambassador to Japan by the Obama administration.
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by Brad Glosserman and Scott Snyder

Brad Glosserman (bradgpf@hawaii.rr.com) is executive director of the Pacific Forum CSIS. Scott Snyder (ssnyder@asiafound-dc.org) is a senior associate at the Pacific Forum CSIS and The Asia Foundation. This article draws on surveys and interviews they conducted in Japan and South Korea; their conclusions are expanded in the forthcoming “Confidence and Confusion: National Identity and Alliance Management in Northeast Asia”.

Japan’s new prime minister, Aso Taro, takes office facing many difficult if not intractable problems, not least of which is securing a ruling coalition for his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Beyond politics, the situation is equally bleak, given Japan’s moribund economy, global financial volatility, and a pervasive gloom that has descended over the country. But, based on elite surveys and interviews we conducted in Japan and South Korea during the past year, we believe the new government could make a bold initiative that would pay important dividends both domestically and internationally.
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By V. Bruce J. Tolentino

Bruce Tolentino is The Asia Foundation’s Director for Economic Reform and Development Programs. He can be reached at btolentino@asiafound.org.

Over the past few weeks, as the U.S. financial system has reeled from a shocking series of major “adjustments,” Asia’s economists and bankers remind themselves of the key lessons — painfully taught — by the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s:  (a) all markets are linked; (b) financial markets are much more volatile than others and thus require more stringent oversight and regulation; and (c) refocusing on economic fundamentals is key to long-term recovery and growth.

Taking the long view, the medium-to-long term impact of the U.S. financial crisis on Asia is likely to be muted.
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