By Scott Snyder

Scott Snyder is a Senior Associate at The Asia Foundation and can be reached at ssnyder@asiafound-dc.org. A more complete version of this article was originally published by CSIS.

The XXIX Beijing Olympiad, an event that had preoccupied Chinese leaders for almost a decade as they sought to utilize the games to project to domestic and international audiences China’s accomplishments on an international stage, has framed many issues in Sino-Korean relations, especially given the many resonances between the 1988 Olympics in Seoul and the Beijing Olympics two decades later. But now that the Olympics are over, Chinese leaders may adopt a different frame for viewing the world and the Korean peninsula, the details of which have begun to emerge in the “post-Olympics era.”

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This past week, The Asia Foundation’s Senior Associate, Scott Snyder spoke about the removal of North Korea from the U.S.’s State Sponsors of Terrorism list and the overall current state of U.S.-North Korea relations to the Los Angeles Times and the Christian Science Monitor. He can be reached at ssnyder@asiafound.org.

Doug Ramage, The Asia Foundation’s Country Representative in Indonesia, spoke to Newsweek over the weekend about Indonesia’s booming economy in “Indonesia As the New India.” He can be reached at ramage@tafindo.org.

By Scott Snyder

Scott Snyder is a Senior Associate at The Asia Foundation. He can be reached at ssnyder@asiafound-dc.org.

Since there have been periodic rumors about the state of Kim Jong Il’s health over the years, it’s easy for North Korea-watchers to become skeptical about unattributed reports from capitals outside of Pyongyang regarding the pulse of the Dear Leader.  It has long been the case that rumors about the stability of North Korea are inversely proportional to the distance one is from Pyongyang; by this logic, rumors started in Washington require special skepticism.

But this time, multiple reports from intelligence officials in many countries are beginning to add up.  These reports suggest that Kim Jong Il experienced an impossible-to-predict “medical event”—apparently a stroke—in mid-August.  But it was particularly his non-appearance at last week’s 60th anniversary events to mark the founding of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) that sparked international speculation.  Intelligence regarding special teams of physicians that had entered North Korea to treat Kim Jong Il has led to a broad array of reports about Kim’s condition and recovery.
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With rumors of Korean President Kim Jong-Il’s ailing health abounding, Former Korean Minister of Foreign Affairs and Ambassador to the U.S, Han Sung-Joo addressed packed crowds in Washington and San Francisco at the formal launch of The Asia Foundation’s America’s Role in Asia.  Ambassador Han asked: “The question is, is North Korea more or less likely to give up its nuclear weapons if there is a government change; or, if Mr. Kim Jong Il becomes incapacitated, is North Korea going to become more or less dangerous than now?”  At both the National Press Club and the Cosmos Club in Washington, DC, and at the Four Seasons in San Francisco, Ambassador Han addressed policymakers, Asian and U.S. diplomats, executives, journalists and philanthropists.
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By Scott Snyder

Scott Snyder is director of the Center for Korea Policy at The Asia Foundation and a senior associate at Pacific Forum CSIS. He can be reached at ssnyder@asiafound-dc.org.

President Bush’s stop to Seoul en route to the Beijing Olympics is a reminder that a once-firm security alliance with South Korea faces continuing difficulties over North Korea’s nuclear development, American beef imports to South Korea, and ratification of a Korea-U.S. free trade agreement. But despite these difficulties, there is potential to refashion this relationship into a dramatically expanded partnership in the service of our mutual regional and global interests.

American and South Korean interests have converged and now expand well beyond the narrow focus on security interests that emerged as a result of the Korean War. South Korea’s successful economic modernization and its political consolidation into a vibrant democracy underscore the attraction of South Korea as a key Asian partner. South Korea has developed the economic, political, and security capacity to be considered as a first-tier partner in promoting both regional and global stability—as evidenced by South Korea’s contributions to peace operations in Timor Leste and Iraq.
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By Scott Snyder

Scott Snyder is a Senior Associate at The Asia Foundation’s office in Washington, DC. He can be reached at ssnyder@asiafound-dc.org.

This week in Beijing, the Six Party Talks are set to reconvene after a nine month hiatus. The hiatus began October 3, 2007 with China’s release of a joint statement that anticipated a series of concrete measures that would be completed by the end of 2007 to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis. During the hiatus, the U.S. and North Korea negotiated bilaterally over how to implement the commitments outlined in that statement. North Korea’s measures included disabling its nuclear facilities at Yongbyon; “reaffirming its commitment not to transfer nuclear materials, technology, and know-how” and making a “complete and correct” declaration of its nuclear programs by the end of 2007. In return, North Korea would receive the following: one million tons of heavy fuel oil or equivalent energy supplies; the removal of North Korea from the U.S. terrorism list, repeal of the Trading With the Enemy Act; and seeing the improvement of Japan-DPRK relations through implementation of the Pyongyang Declaration.
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By John Brandon

John Brandon is Director of The Asia Foundation’s International Relations program and head of America’s Role in Asia.

With our election cycle, every four years American foreign policy has a fresh opportunity to be re-examined and re-strategized. Come 2009, U.S. policy towards Asia will continue to directly affect 60% of the world’s population. Many Asians tell me they’re concerned that decisions affecting them, and their countries’ security, are being made unilaterally in Washington. Many say they believe the Global War on Terror tops the U.S. foreign policy agenda, trumping all else. Asian policymakers I’ve spoken to say repeatedly they have little input in decisions made in the U.S. and that their domestic interests are rarely if ever taken into account. Given the political, economic, and security interests of the U.S. in the region, it is essential that both Americans and Asians contribute to solving problems of mutual concern.
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By V. Bruce J. Tolentino

Bruce Tolentino is The Asia Foundation’s Director for Economic Reform. He can be reached at btolentino@asiafound.org.

Widespread hunger now threatens the developing world, especially in Asia. The knee-jerk reactions of individual countries are worsening the situation. Unilateral actions by certain countries have exacerbated the problem of food price increases. Countries and economies are inextricably and unavoidably ever more linked; actions in one nation impact all.

For example, the Indian government imposed a ban on rice exports in November 2007 and took itself—the world’s second-largest exporter of rice—out of the market. This immediately set off repercussions in the countries of other major exporters—particularly Vietnam. In the last twelve months, Vietnam has experienced unprecedented inflation and suffered a slight downturn in rice production. Now, Vietnam is limiting its own exports.
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By Edward Reed

Edward Reed is The Asia Foundation’s Korea Representative.

The next best thing to being in the music hall in Pyongyang for the performance by the New York Philharmonic Orchestra was watching the performance with the hard-nosed members of the Seoul Foreign Correspondents Club in downtown Seoul, a little over one hundred miles to the south. After watching the live broadcast of the performance with the correspondents and other interested observers based in Seoul, I participated in a polite but sharp debate with Brian (B.R.) Myers, an analyst of North Korea’s official propaganda machine and keen observer of North Korean political culture.

According to one perspective, the admirable but naïve expectations that music would soften the hearts of the North Korean people toward Americans, opening their eyes to a world beyond the tightly controlled one in which they live, will be dashed on the impermeable propaganda wall.
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By Scott Snyder

Scott Snyder is a Senior Associate at The Asia Foundation. This piece was originally published on the Brooking Institution’s web site.

On February 25, Lee Myung-bak will be inaugurated as the tenth president of the Republic of Korea. President-elect Lee is a member of the conservative Grand National Party (GNP or Hannara-dang), and his inauguration ends ten years of rule by progressive presidents; it is the second transition in power from the ruling party to the opposition since South Korea’s democratic transition in 1988. In contrast to American inaugural ceremonies, in which the symbolism of checks and balances is played out both through legislative roles and the swearing-in of the American president by the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, South Korea’s president has traditionally by his own initiative publicly sworn his own oath directly to the people.

But the symbolism of an imperial presidency is no longer adequate to reflect the vibrancy of South Korea’s democracy or the reality that power and responsibility have been diffused to other power centers within Korean government and society. Nor will such an oath reflect the biggest challenge Lee Myung-bak will face as South Korea’s next president: the need to provide leadership by forging and promoting social consensus within South Korea.
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