By Scott Snyder

I spent last week at several meetings in Tokyo, Seoul, and Jeju that revolved around the Cheonan incident and its implications for regional security. The Lee Myung-Bak administration got high marks for its handling of the immediate aftermath of the incident. It is important to remember that in the hours following the Cheonan’s sinking on March 26th, there was no rush to judgment, but rather a deliberate decision to mount an international investigation of the incident. The day after the sinking, Yonhap quoted a South Korean senior official as saying that chances are “slim” that North Korea was involved.
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The vision of a world free of nuclear weapons was boldly initiated three years ago by four U.S. senior statesmen – Henry Kissinger, George Schultz, William Perry and Sam Nunn. To achieve the goal of a world free of nuclear weapons and to bring the world back from the tipping point, the vision aims to reduce nations’ reliance on nuclear weapons, prevent them from falling into dangerous hands, and to rid the world of nuclear weapons as a threat.

We highly appreciate the initiatives taken by these four wise men that have helped to make progress toward a world free of nuclear weapons. We also appreciate President Barack Obama’s efforts to courageously translate this vision into specific policy measures. In his historic Prague speech in April 2009, Obama emphasized America’s commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons. In April 2010, President Obama signed a New START agreement with President Medvedev of Russia, in which the leaders solemnly declared their joint commitment to eliminate all nuclear weapons globally and agreed to substantially reduce their respective strategic nuclear weapons.

Our support for these efforts is directly related to the grim reality we face in Korea and the vision of the Korean Peninsula without nuclear weapons.

The above is an excerpt of a statement published on June 23 in JoongAng Daily made by former Prime Minister and Asia Foundation Trustee Lee Hong-ko;, Ambassador Han Sung-joo, former Foreign Minister of South Korea, a member of the Board of Directors of the Friends of The Asia Foundation in Korea, and head of the Northeast Asia task force on The Asia Foundation’s America’s Role in Asia project; along with two other prominent Koreans. The statement was timed for the 60th anniversary of the outbreak of the Korean War. Read the full statement.

On June 15, The Asia Foundation’s Center for U.S.-Korea Policy director Scott Snyder, along with a “task force” composed of roughly two dozen experts, released a landmark report: U.S. Policy toward the Korean Peninsula, which emphasizes that “despite the difficulty of the challenge, the danger posed by North Korea is sufficiently severe, and the costs of inaction and acquiescence so high, that the United States and its partners must continue to press for denuclearization.” The United States cannot risk “the potential spread of nuclear weapons to rogue states, terrorist groups or others – especially in the Middle East.”

The Council on Foreign Relations Independent Task Force members – including Asia Foundation’s President Doug Bereuter and representing a wide variety of backgrounds –  concludes as tensions on the Korean peninsula rise after an international investigation found that North Korea was responsible for the sinking of the Cheonan, a South Korean warship, and warns that North Korea’s continued provocations pose a serious threat to its neighbors and that its nuclear weapons program must be stopped. Read the full report.

By Edward Reed

In spite of their appropriately firm responses to North Korea over the sinking of the South’s naval vessel in March that left 46 dead, both the United States and South Korea have left open the door for humanitarian assistance to the North, especially aid to vulnerable populations. This is a positive signal in the midst of a dangerous crisis and escalating rhetoric. Continuation of aid, especially by South Korea, is justified both on humanitarian grounds and as a means of maintaining a channel for contact between opposing camps. History indicates that it is a safety valve that both the South and North have made effective use of in past crises.

In 2002 a serious naval clash took place between the South and North in the West Sea of Korea near the same place where the Cheonan was struck. A South Korean ship was destroyed and six South Korean sailors lost their lives. All official contact between South and North Korea was halted while tensions mounted.
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By Scott Snyder

The Washington Post reports that interim results of a South Korea-led international investigation into the March 26th sinking of the 1,200-ton corvette Cheonan near Baek-ryong Island are due to be released by the South Korean government on Thursday morning (Wednesday evening EST). The report, which concludes on the basis of strong circumstantial forensic evidence that a North Korean torpedo sunk the Cheonan, will provide an initial basis upon which the South Korean government will pursue a range of policy responses. These responses can be categorized according to four different tracks: 1) domestic, 2) inter-Korean, 3) the U.S.-ROK alliance, 4) international.
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By Scott Snyder

The latest BBC/World Service Poll conducted in January and released earlier this week has some results in Northeast Asia that offer some food for thought—at least for anyone who thinks that public views are a potentially decisive influence on foreign policy. The two most notable results in Northeast Asia are the precipitous rise in negative Chinese (and Russian) views towards North Korea and the strikingly positive feelings that exist between the South Korean and Japanese publics toward each other on the one hundredth anniversary of Japan’s annexation of the Korean peninsula.

Read the full piece on the Council on Foreign Relations blog Asia Unbound.

Scott Snyder directs The Asia Foundation’s Center for U.S.-Korea Policy. He can be reached at ssnyder@asiafound-dc.org.

The Council on Foreign Relations interviews Scott Snyder, Director of The Asia Foundation’s Center for U.S.-Korea Policy, on the possibility of a visit by North Korea’s Kim Jong-Il to China. Snyder wonders if such a visit would include China’s urging North Korea to return to the Six Party Talks, which have been at a standstill since last December. Read the full interview on the Council on Foreign Relations website.

China’s Ambassador to the United States Zhou Wenzhong spoke to a packed room of 350+ yesterday at a World Affairs Council event, co-sponsored by The Asia Foundation, on the future of U.S.-China relations. In an atmosphere of increasing tensions between the U.S. and China, due in part to recent reports of wide-scale cyberattacks, the ambassador referred to the relationship between the two countries as “one of the most dynamic and influential bilateral relationships in the world.” The Ambassador praised President Obama’s trip to Beijing in November to meet with China’s President Hu Jintao, and said, with the signing of the Sino-U.S. joint statement, the two leaders “have pledged to work together to build a cooperative China-U.S. relationship for the 21st century and to steadily build a partnership to address common challenges.”  The audience challenged the Ambassador’s upbeat remarks with some tough questions on Google in China, the environment, human rights, and China’s relationship with an increasingly unstable North Korea. The Ambassador spoke just up the street from The Asia Foundation, in the Gold Room at the Fairmont Hotel.  Below are some of the Ambassador’s responses to questions the audience posed.
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By Scott A. Snyder

North Korea has traditionally utilized the new year to set priorities and provide guidance to its people. Under Kim Jong Il, this guidance has come out in the form of a combined New Year’s editorial published by three major media outlets. South Korean presidents have also used a New Year’s speech outlining major priorities. North Korea’s joint editorial and Lee Myung-Bak’s New Year’s speech emphasize that both Koreas are putting importance on the economy while refraining from criticizing each other.

The similarities end there. North Korea’s joint editorial emphasizes its technological accomplishments (satellite launch and nuclear tests), heavy industry advancement (improved steel-making methods), and political loyalty (fireworks displays allegedly organized by putative successor Kim Jong-eun). From a North Korean perspective, 2009 was a good year; “The victorious great upsurge of last year confirms that the DPRK is developing in leaps and bounds. …”

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By Scott Snyder

For a country that appears to be so isolated from the outside world, North Korea seems to have been on edge for months regarding the possible impact of swine flu (H1N1) on its population. These rumors of North Korean anxiety have been underscored by an unusual admission last week of nine confirmed cases of swine flu in Pyongyang and Sinuiju (the WHO has reported that all nine have recovered), but these cases may be the tip of the iceberg.
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