It is 11 in the morning on June 21, 2012. The phone has been ringing at ACSOR’s (Afghan Centre for Socio-Economic and Opinion Research) Central office in Kabul. The project management team has been busy assigning new sampling points to those calling in and seeking a replacement. The phone rings again and this time it is the field team supervisor from Badakhshan province. One of the villages assigned as a sampling point in the province is discovered to be under the control of the Taliban and so a replacement is sought. Then a team from Farah Province calls in for a replacement reporting no motorable road to the Gala Jowi village; this call is quickly followed by one from the team unable to reach Beatne Village, in Nangarhar, where the way has been blocked by a recent flood.

A Kunduz resident responds to questions for the 2012 Survey of the Afghan People.

The above scene is part of the intense process during the data collection phase of The Asia Foundation’s annual Survey of the Afghan People. To ensure the safety of this year’s 742 interviewers (314 of them women), any location chosen by the central office, using a multistage, random sampling methodology, where, at the time of the fieldwork, active fighting is ongoing, or where anti-government elements are in control, is replaced by another where there is no active clash. This is the same process for villages experiencing natural disasters, like floods, or those that are so remote they are unreachable by road or foot, or villages that are untraceable (owing to settlement lists that are remnants from the 1979 census). A replacement is made by selecting another point within the same district, or at least within the same province in cases where the whole district is facing ongoing warfare or is under Taliban control. The ethnic composition and the geographical location of the replacement are kept as close to the original point as possible in an effort to derive similar response trends. To account for the needed replacements, an error factor is calculated and applied to the survey findings.

Interviewers in Samangan Province encounter a flooded road as they attempt to reach villages to conduct the Survey of the Afghan People.

The total replacements accounted for 31 percent of the total sampling points this year, 16 percent of those for security reasons. In 2011, the replacements due to security were 11 percent; in 2010 also 16 percent; and in 2009, 12 percent. A detailed list of replacements made in 2012 can be found in the methodology section of the Survey, Appendix 2.

Several measures are taken to increase the reliability of the data in the face of replacement problems and other difficulties with conducting interviews in Afghanistan.

Additional error margin due to replacement of sampling points:

The sampling (stochastic) error for the survey which considers the sample size and the sample design has been consistent at +/-2.4 percent each year since 2006. In addition, a replacement-related error (systemic error) has been calculated every year since 2009, when the need for replacements began to increase. The survey from 2008 has been taken as the base for the error calculations. The locations that have been replaced due to inaccessibility in subsequent years, but were surveyed in 2008, are removed from the data set of 2008, and the two 2008 data sets, the original and the revised, are compared. The highest difference between responses for any particular question is taken as the error factor. So for this year, the 2012 sampling points that were not accessible were removed from the 2008 data set and the two data sets were compared and differences in responses noted. This year, the systemic component of margin of error has been calculated at +/-2.7 percent, so combining the stochastic and the systemic error there is a total margin of error of +/-5.1 percent.

Increased sampling points:

To expand and enhance the sampling reach, and at the recommendation of our partner, ACSOR, this year six interviews were conducted in each sampling point as opposed to eight in previous years. This increased our sampling points to 1,055 in 2012, compared to about 880 in previous years. Increasing the spread of the sample across the country increases its representativeness and minimizes homogeneity in responses that may arise among respondents living in a cluster. Once the points are determined, the field team supervisors and the enumerators are assigned their locations. A laudable effort is made by the teams to reach all the points on their lists; a replacement is only made when absolutely necessary.

Increased quality control:

All survey questionnaires undergo computer-aided checks. For example, if a set of questionnaires, especially those administered by a single interviewer, reveals similar responses to a large section of the questionnaire, then they are pulled out for further scrutiny. In addition, 25 percent of the interviews were supervised in person during the survey. Other quality control methods included supervisor accompanied interviews (3.5%), back-checks by ACSOR’s central office (5.6%), and back-checks by the Foundation’s staff (6%). The accompanied checks and back-checks make up over 40 percent of the interviews this year. This year 76 questionnaires were rejected after these quality checks.

Social desirability bias:

One concern that exists in all surveying is that respondents are not frank in their responses. As social scientists know, sometimes survey respondents give answers considered to be socially desirable rather than what they truly feel. During the questionnaire development for the Survey of the Afghan people, great care is taken to reduce questions that are potentially sensitive. Again, to address ethnic sensitivities during the process – a major consideration in a place like Afghanistan – we have local interviewers from the same ethnic background and same province who are deeply familiar with the region conduct the interview. At the start of the interview, the interviewers introduce themselves as members of ACSOR, an independent research firm that conducts several such surveys. The respondent is told that their participation in the survey is confidential and that their names will not be given out and their responses will be analyzed along with thousands of others from across the country. Of course, these steps don’t always guarantee frank and uninhibited responses. Sixty-four percent of the respondents said that it is generally not acceptable to talk negatively about the government in public. So that could always weigh on the responses. There are unanswered questions, and follow-up qualitative research to get deeper insight into some issues is a goal, including an independent analysis on aspects of social desirability bias in the survey, which is planned for early 2013.

The Survey of the Afghan People aims to represent the voices of the whole nation, not just the voices of the elite, the well-read, the development worker, the government servant, or the political analyst. The demographic profile of the 6,290 randomly selected Afghan citizens includes 58 percent who never went to school, 77 percent from villages outside of larger cities, and 38 percent who are housewives. As such, the survey offers a rare glimpse into the views expressed by regular Afghan citizens. Taken together, the 6,000 plus samples in each of these years allows for very robust analysis and insight into Afghan perception and the direction of the country.

For in-depth regional results, as well as seven years of downloadable survey data, visit the interactive site, Visualizing Afghanistan. For the complete data sets, please contact surveyrelease@ag.asiafound.org.

Sunil Pillai is a technical advisor for The Asia Foundation in Afghanistan. He has been involved with all of the surveys conducted by the Foundation since 2004. He can be reached at spillai@asiafound.org. The views and opinions expressed here are those of the individual author and not those of The Asia Foundation.

Immediately following the recent release of the much-anticipated 2012 Survey of the Afghan People,

In this year’s survey, a majority of Afghans say that their families are more prosperous today than they were during the Taliban era, with, interestingly, more women than men saying so. What kinds of changes and developments do you think have contributed to this apparent feeling of greater prosperity?

This year, we saw a rise in a couple of areas that indicate that people have better access to basic needs, including schools (51% compared to 46% in 2011) and an overwhelming majority with access to drinking water. Financial well being is up seven points to 50 percent, health of family members is on the rise at 42 percent, and freedom of movement is a high 72 percent.

I think that greater participation of women in the political process, economic development, and increased access to education have also contributed significantly to an overall feeling of greater prosperity. While women’s rights issues still remain a grave challenge in Afghanistan, in the past few years, women have become more vocal about some issues, including violence against women. Greater women’s participation and involvement in governance, civil society, and social life has helped generate broader awareness of these issues among women and men, which has in turn influenced policy and decision-making.

There have also been some efforts from the government such as the establishment in 2006 of the family response unit within the police department and the strengthening of women affairs directorates. Recently, civil society and women activists have had more influence on policy and decision-making and media have been playing a key role in helping these voices reach the greater public.

Six years ago, you opened a private school in your neighborhood, one of Kabul’s most heavily populated districts. What is your reaction to the survey findings that cite access to schools as being one of two areas in which most Afghans report improvements over the past year?

That’s right, and we are still managing the school successfully. I certainly see the improvements in education that respondents indicate in the survey: 77 percent expressed satisfaction on availability of education services, while 89 percent expressed satisfaction with the government’s performance in this sector.

Although the number of girls in school is still smaller than the number of boys, there is more acceptance for girls’ education among families today than in the past, they have recognized that by educating their children, and specially their daughters, they have a greater shot at prosperity and a better future.

Unfortunately, there is a big divide between rural and city areas. Generally, the urban population has better access to education and greater freedom of movement. Also, the focus of development projects has always started in the urban areas, whether by the government or the international community organizations. While the challenges may vary, a lack of qualified teachers – particularly women – exists all over the country.

The Directorate of Women’s Affairs is by far the institution most frequently identified by Afghans as a place where women can go for assistance with their problems, and in 2012 it was cited at twice the rate as in 2011. What changes have you noticed in Afghanistan’s institutions?

I think the Directorate of Women Affairs’ (DoWA) role and mandate is more clearly understood by the government institutions and public in comparison to previous years. As we see from the survey, just over half of the respondents see the DoWA as the place where women can go for assistance. Indeed, there has been a lot of focus and support to strengthen the capacities of the DoWA in recent years and we see the impact of such efforts in the survey findings. Greater engagement and partnership with civil society and the DoWA has also been critical in strengthening its role in society and for women.

What do you think are the biggest accomplishments that Afghan women have made over the last decade? What are the biggest challenges ahead?

Women’s political participation is the biggest achievement over the past decade. We currently have 68 women members of Parliament in the Lower House, 28 senators in the Upper House, three women ministers, a female governor, director of the Human Rights Commission, a female director of the Red Crescent, and nine women are members of the High Peace Council.

The biggest challenges ahead for women will be improving the legal framework to provide greater protection for women’s rights in the society. Violence against women at all levels of society still remains a great challenge and concern. This year, we have witnessed disturbing cases of violence and loss of life for women leaders. In July, Hanifa Safi, director of Women’s Affairs in of Laghman province, was killed by a car bomb. The Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission has registered 3,000 cases of violence against women in the first six months of this year.

There is a dire need for more awareness of the laws, particularly the 2009 Elimination of Violence against Women (EVAW) law, and also improvement of existing laws in favor of women’s rights to ensure that these rights are safeguarded. Legislative processes need to be more consultative with the civil society to address women’s issues in the process of lawmaking and amending the existing laws.

It’s critical that all bodies of government and civil society work together to ensure that the achievements of the past decade are upheld, particularly during the transition.

Speaking of transition, as the country transfers security to Afghan control, what are your greatest concerns?

While there is confidence in the Afghan national security forces, it is widely understood that they still require training and are under-equipped to take full responsibility for security, particularly in the most volatile and insecure regions of the country.

Seventy-nine percent of respondents indicated that corruption is a major problem at the national level, while unemployment at the national level is at 27 percent, and 29 percent ranked this as their first concern. These are my major concerns as well, as these issues will be contributing factors to Afghanistan’s economy and security.

And, as a woman, I’m also concerned about upholding and promoting further progress of the achievements of women in the past 10 years.

On November 14, The Asia Foundation released the results of its eighth annual Survey of the Afghan People in Kabul and Washington, D.C. The survey is the most comprehensive and credible nationwide public opinion poll available to the Afghan Government, international donor community, NGOs, and other institutions working for the improved welfare of the Afghan people. In many ways, the survey findings reflect the more somber headlines coming out of Afghanistan daily: security and corruption continue to plague communities, and are sources of enormous concern. Despite these realities, the survey also reveals a strong yearning among Afghans for things like greater job opportunities and access to education which are direly needed to move their society forward.

This year, 52 percent of respondents said the country is “moving in the right direction.” However, security, unemployment, and corruption remain major concerns.

This year’s survey included 6,290 face-to-face interviews with respondents in all of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces, revealing perceptions of national mood, security, reconciliation and reintegration, economy, development and service delivery, government performance, corruption, political participation, the justice system, women and society, and access to information technology.

This year, 52 percent of respondents said the country is “moving in the right direction” (up from 46 percent last year). As in other years, some originally identified survey sampling points in 2012 had to be replaced for security reasons; thus, respondents living in highly insecure areas (who might be more pessimistic about the overall direction of the country) are likely to be underrepresented. When asked the reason for their optimism, security was cited 41 percent of the time. For the 31 percent who felt the country is “moving in the wrong direction,” insecurity was cited as the reason for their pessimism 39 percent of the time. Additionally, nearly half of the respondents (48%) stated that they feared for their personnel safety. Clearly perceptions of security are a major determinant of the national mood and sense of well-being.

Unemployment is also identified as one of the biggest problems at the local level, cited by 29 percent of respondents. Other critical local-level problems include lack of electricity (25%), roads (20%), and drinking water (18%). Lack of job opportunities is also cited as the second-largest problem facing women, behind access to education and illiteracy.

It is significant that unemployment shows up among the top three problems facing the country at the national and local levels and has increased over last year’s survey. This is indicative of growing economic challenges facing the country with a demographic “youth bulge” (the average age of the population is 16), an unemployment rate already at about 35 percent, and signs of an economic downturn evident in the growing loss of jobs dependent on international development spending, such as the Provincial Reconstruction Teams set up around the country to support development which are now closing. In addition, 50 percent of the respondents state that the financial situation of their household is the second-biggest determinate of their overall perception of well-being.

As in previous surveys conducted by the Foundation, corruption continues to be perceived as a major problem affecting confidence in government and personal well-being. This year, 87 percent of respondents cited corruption as a problem in their daily life, and 69 percent said that government was doing a “bad job” fighting corruption.

Despite these challenges in security, unemployment, and corruption for which the survey participants largely hold the government responsible, sympathy for armed, anti-government groups has dropped significantly, from 22 percent in 2009 to 10 percent in 2012. The most often cited reason for the drop in lack of sympathy is that armed opposition groups are perceived to be “killing innocent people.”

Opinions of security, employment, and corruption have the biggest impact on perceptions of national mood regarding government performance and personal well-being. While these three factors still present the biggest challenge to government, people recognize the government’s achievements in the areas of education, maintaining security in some areas, and general reconstruction. Most importantly, sympathy for armed opposition to the government continues to fall. As the Afghan Government takes control of the nation’s security, it will be even more critical that this sentiment continues in this direction.

The 2012 Survey was conducted with support from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID), and the British Foreign & Commonwealth Office (FCO).

Mark Kryzer is The Asia Foundation’s country representative in Afghanistan. He can be reached at mkryzer@asiafound.org. The views and opinions expressed here are those of the individual author and not those of The Asia Foundation.

For the most part, Afghanistan is portrayed today as violent and war-torn and with an ineffective and corrupt government. The consensus seems to be that there is little hope that the country will hold together or defend itself against the Taliban and other terrorists after U.S. and NATO combat troops leave two years hence. The conclusion is that much blood and treasure has been wasted since the Taliban were ousted in 2001.

But there is another view of this story. The majority of Afghans see their future quite differently.

The Asia Foundation has just completed its eighth survey of public opinion in Afghanistan since 2004. These surveys have established a valid, long-term barometer of the Afghan people’s views over time.  Last June nearly 6,300 Afghans were interviewed across all 34 provinces on a wide variety of issues. Respondents were divided between men (56%) and women (44%), and included both urban (22%) and rural (78%) households. The fact that 16 percent of polling sites were not accessible for security reasons – potentially creating a bias – is taken into account and does not overturn the major findings. The survey’s sampling error is +/- 5 percent.

What is most striking in this latest survey is that 52 percent of the respondents – up from 46 percent in 2011 – believe that Afghanistan is moving in the right direction. 93 percent have a positive view of the Afghan armed forces (although many have doubts about the ability of the Afghan army and police to operate today without the support of foreign troops). Eighty-nine percent give their government good marks for the provision of educational services. Seventy-two percent say their national legislature is addressing the problems of ordinary citizens.

Read the full piece, originally published by Foreign Policy’s AFPAK Channel on November 14.

Asia Foundation trustee Karl Inderfurth is the former Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs and trustee Ted Eliot is a former Ambassador to Afghanistan. The views and opinions expressed here are those of the individual authors and not those of The Asia Foundation.

Let’s face it – the women activists of Afghanistan, along with the international community’s support, have done a pretty good job of achieving critical gains for women. For example, we have three women in our cabinet, we have almost 30 percent women in our parliament, and women in parliament are the most active participants and are even on the Defense Committee. There is a National Action Plan for the Women of Afghanistan, and the 2009 Elimination of Violence Against Women (EVAW) law is now in place, which includes psychological abuse and sexual harassment. And, the list goes on from there.

At a recent dialogue in Turkey that the U.S. Institute of Peace arranged between Iraqi and Afghan women to exchange ideas on the 2014 security transition from NATO forces to the Afghan government, I was among the Afghan participants that were asked to describe what achievements for women’s rights we’ve been able to make so far and where the remaining gaps are. The dynamic group of Afghan women that I was with quickly listed off the gains in women’s political participation, but just as quickly, talked about how there is a rise in violence against women due to lack of proper implementation of laws, corruption, and limited awareness of women’s rights among women and men. But, when we presented to our Iraqi counterparts, their jaws literally dropped. One Iraqi participant asked: “Is this a wish list or were you actually able to achieve this?” There was disbelief that in the Afghan context – still considered one of the worst countries for women to live – we had been able to make these gains.

We’ve moved hard and fast, due in part to the international community’s focus on women’s issues in Afghanistan over the last decade. But now, as the country takes over the reigns and international troops pull out, it’s critical that we figure out how to maintain these goals – which are already at risk. For example, the just-launched 2012 Survey of the Afghan People shows that support for equal representation of men and women in political leadership positions is on the decline. Initially, support was steady (in 2006 it was 50%, in 2008, 51%), but more recently it has been declining (down to 45% in 2012). The number of those who think women should be able to work outside of the home has also been on a small but steady decline. Survey findings also reveal a substantial difference between men’s and women’s attitudes on women working outside the home: 80 percent of female respondents say women should be allowed, compared to just 55 percent of men who say so.

Recently, we’ve seen a disturbing increase in violence against women in Afghanistan, particularly honor killings and rape cases – with more than 100 in the first half of this year. Unfortunately, while well-intentioned, the actual implementation of the EVAW law is still not effective. Moreover, the law is not widely understood as there is a misconception among the Afghan public that it is un-Islamic. In this year’s survey, respondents were asked if there is an organization, institution, or authority in their area where women can go to have their problem(s) resolved. Less than one in five respondents say such an organization exists, while over three quarters say there is no such organization in their area.

That said, another area of findings reveals a more hopeful sign for improving women’s gains: confidence in religious leaders remains high at 74 percent, and they rank the highest in serving the interests of Afghan society rather than their own interests (43%). This valuable information helps us to develop programs that work toward building partnerships with religious leaders and institutions who work for the development of the country and support women’s rights within an Islamic framework. Since religious leaders are trusted in their communities and have a high level of credibility, working with religious leaders on a common goal may help to improve public opinion on women’s rights and expand the space for women’s empowerment not just at the top but at all levels of society.

At the request of some of our leaders and activists on women’s rights, starting next month, from December 30 to January 4, The Asia Foundation in Kabul will host women religious scholars and activists from Egypt, UAE, and Turkey alongside Afghan religious scholars to share ideas on how to further engage with religious leaders and institutions. By working closely with these “champions of change,” we will be one step closer to not just holding onto women’s substantial gains, but to advancing women’s empowerment even more to benefit the entire society. And this won’t depend on foreign presence or troops.

Palwasha Kakar is a senior program advisor in The Asia Foundation Afghanistan office and co-author of the 2012 Survey of the Afghan People. She can be reached a pkakar@asiafound.org. The views and opinions expressed here are those of the individual author and not those of The Asia Foundation.

The streets of Kabul were packed as usual with cars as women scurried by in the street covering their faces with their headscarves to keep out the dust. But today, traffic was much worse than usual due to a new minister traveling in his convoy of armored cars flanked by heavily armed men. Despite Kabul’s growth and international presence, public streets are still very much male territory and most women still feel uncomfortable walking around. I watched this familiar scene from the office window of one of Afghanistan’s most prominent human rights activists, Hangama Anwari. Hangama very much represents the “other side” of female life in Afghanistan – the powerful, confident side not often seen in the news.

Despite gains, the streets of Afghanistan are still intimidating for most women. Photo/Janet Ketcham

Hangama now works with young Afghan women and men to promote respect for women’s rights. Hangama completed her degree in Law and Political Science at the University of Balkh and later moved to Kabul where she began her career as an advisor on women and children’s rights.

The streets outside Hangama’s office are clearly a man’s world, but in marked contrast, the atmosphere within the confines of the capital’s universities has visibly improved when it comes to women. Enrollment in universities is increasing for women – rising from nearly 13,000 in 2008 to nearly 16,000 in 2010 – who walk confidently around chatting to their friends and actively participating in classes with a confidence often surprising to visitors from outside the country.

In The Asia Foundation’s just-launched 2012 Survey of the Afghan People, education consistently ranks as one of the key areas that Afghans identify as an area of both improvement and need. In fact, 87 percent of respondents said that women and men should have equal opportunities in education. This is very good news. What’s not so good, however, is that women are still markedly underrepresented in leadership positions, such as teachers and politicians. The survey found that less than half (45 percent) of the population believes that females and males should have equal representation in political leadership positions. And while 53 percent agree that women should decide for themselves how to vote, many still say that men should play some role in advising or influencing women’s choices at the ballot box.

Starting in 2012, The Asia Foundation has been conducting training in Leadership, Peace- Building, and Conflict Resolution in the women’s and men’s dormitories at Kabul University, with Hangama as the trainer. As in most countries, the university students are traditionally known as being activists, and the dormitories can be political hotspots as different ethnic groups strive to live together and complete their studies in relative peace.

The trainings are also challenging concepts of leadership. They are helping the students see that they need to value the opinions of all to make a difference. When I spoke with Hangama, she told me that women are not so pressured by political parties, perhaps because they are seen as less important in the political process of the country. Both women and men initially saw the term “leader” as someone who is in control, unreachable, and according to the women, “definitely male and preferably tall.”

Hangama works with the students to encourage them to see themselves as leaders who can one day make positive changes in their classes, families, and communities. And, shifting this perception is critical in increasing women’s leadership:  in the survey, 80 percent of women and 55 of men say women should be able to work outside the home, but this number has slightly decreased over the last eight years. Hangama raises this trend as an issue for discussion sessions during the classes.

The classes on conflict management are the ones Hangama finds most interesting. She encourages the young men and women to focus on how smaller conflicts build up to bigger ones and that solving them is valuable for moving a peaceful society forward. Around half the survey respondents say they sometimes fear for the safety of themselves and their friends and family. “War” and “terrorism” seem impossible for university students to solve, but connecting it with increased respect for others and more informed negotiation skills is attainable.

On September 26, 90 women received their training certificates. One of the participants told me that the training had changed her perspective on who can be a leader and had given her confidence to manage issues with her professors, classmates, and even her dorm roommates.

The case studies in the training materials are mostly related to women’s issues. Hangama thought hard about whether to adjust them for the training in the men’s dorm, then decided to keep them as they are. She is adamant that nothing will change for women unless men are also educated to create a supportive environment for girls and women to grow up, study, and work in.

Last week, Hangama went to the men’s dormitory to facilitate a training and the guard at the gate didn’t want to let her in, as he couldn’t believe a woman was coming into such male territory to train them in leadership. One of the participants was walking by and explained to the guard that the training was useful for them and that Hangama was welcome.

Slightly more than half of the survey respondents in 2012 said that the country is moving in the right direction. By improving their leadership skills, these young people in the dormitories at Kabul University are no doubt helping to move Afghanistan forward.

Fiona Rowand is The Asia Foundation’s education program director in Afghanistan. She can be reached at frowand@asiafound.org. The views and opinions expressed here are those of the individual author and not those of The Asia Foundation.

Stay tuned for the release, as well as analysis of key survey findings in this blog. In the meantime, examine findings from six years of Asia Foundation surveys, broken down by issues and regions on an interactive map, Visualizing Afghanistan; or watch a slideshow that captures some of the 6,348 interviews as they took place for last year’s survey, with pollsters traveling long, arduous distances to survey community members across all 34 diverse provinces. Read analysis from last year’s survey authors on why Afghanistan’s religious institutions are so trusted, rising optimism over reconstruction and rebuilding, and challenges facing women.

Pollsters survey community members across all 34 diverse provinces to gather data for the 8th Survey of the Afghan People.

Although we may not always agree on the specifics – or the application of the concept given its political sensitivities – there is a degree of consensus on the general traits of state fragility. These include, for example, weak capacity to provide basic services, public security and rule of law; inability to manage political conflict; and delegitimization of the state. But this year’s Global Monitoring Report, produced by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, threw a new trait into the mix. “Fragile states,” it argued, are characterized by, among other things, a “lack of timely and reliable statistics on the basis of which policies can be formulated.”

It is true that data deficiencies are often associated with conflict, and it is also true that violent settings pose enormous challenges to knowledge generation. Yet, it is in these contexts that the need for reliable evidence is perhaps greater than anywhere else. Fragility and conflict occupy spaces that are highly dynamic and uncertain, and bring with them problems that are irreducibly complex. Finding ways to get at the solutions to some of these problems is a pressing task for those working on security and development in the world’s epicenters of fragility, from the favelas of Rio de Janeiro to the valleys of Helmand. In many cases, understanding the realities of such places and identifying priorities requires a geographical focus on local areas and an analytical focus on the views of local people. So too do assessments of program impact: as noted recently by the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID), people’s perceptions of change often matter as much as the actual change itself.

It is against this backdrop that perception surveys have come to constitute an important element of research methodologies in conflict-affected situations. But just how far do they get us in terms of enriching understanding and influencing policy? A recent Overseas Development Institute (ODI) public event, organized by the Secure Livelihoods Research Consortium (SLRC), set out to try and shed some light on this question, bringing together a panel of experts with experience of conducting perception surveys in hostile environments. What emerged was not a narrow debate on the technicalities of doing perception surveys, but a far broader set of reflections on the nature of evidence-making in conflict-affected situations.

The use of perception surveys in fragile and conflict-affected situations
At their core, perception surveys exist to gather information on people’s views. Typically administered in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, but increasingly applied in developing and conflict-affected states, perception surveys are considered useful for exploring difficult-to-measure, subjective issues such as trust, satisfaction and expectations, sometimes at representative levels. In recent years they have been used to investigate service delivery in Bosnia and Herzegovina, policing in (then) southern Sudan, security in urban Haiti, and governance in Afghanistan. Perception surveys are also becoming more and more relevant to the evolving fragile states agenda, the optics of which are shifting from questions of administrative capacity to those around legitimacy, social contracts and state-society relations. Such methods may have a central role to play in monitoring countries’ progress towards achieving the five Peacebuilding and Statebuilding Goals as set out in the recently engineered “New Deal for Engagement in Fragile States.”

How far do perception surveys take us?
It is quite clear that perception surveys have the potential to add value to research and policy-making in conflict-affected situations. At the very least, they can play an important role in improving the size and rigor of the existing evidence base – something which is desperately needed. Indeed, a key message emerging from the ODI public event was that the question is no longer whether to do perception surveys, but how we can do them better.

But there are limits. Perception surveys can only fill in part of the picture, meaning that they must be supplemented by other methods or embedded within triangulation approaches. More fundamentally, doing surveys in violent and volatile contexts generates massive costs and splitting logistical headaches, particularly if they are to be done properly: as George Varughese of The Asia Foundation pointed out, “if you put rubbish in, then you’ll get rubbish out.” In other words, questions that aim to better understand public anxiety surrounding governance are of greater utility than questions that reflect donor curiosity about aid and regime performance and which fail to produce actionable findings. And, when combined with a host of generic survey problems that become more pronounced in settings of war and violence – from high rates of attrition in follow-up panel surveys to the “shades of truth and lies” that accompany respondents’ testimonies – the bounds of how far perception surveys are able to take us become increasingly visible.

So, as The Asia Foundation’s Tom Parks argued, although the need for more and better evidence in fragile and conflict-affected situations is clear, the required “burden of proof” – or standard of evidence – simply cannot be the same as that demanded of their more stable counterparts. In an era when aid programs have to be justified – usually in terms of their value for money– it is becoming increasingly difficult to produce the level of evidence that is expected. Taking this into account, the real question then becomes: does the results-based agenda for fragile states need a rethink?

Richard Mallett is a research officer on the Secure Livelihoods Research Consortium (SLRC), based at the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) – Britain’s leading independent think tank on international development and humanitarian issues. SLRC is a six year global research program exploring livelihoods, basic services and social protection in conflict-affected situations. Richard can be reached at r.mallett@odi.org.uk. The views and opinions expressed here are those of the individual author and not those of The Asia Foundation.

Just yesterday, on November 15 in Kabul and Washington, D.C., The Asia Foundation released the results of its 2011 Survey of the Afghan People.

The annual Survey of the Afghan People is the most comprehensive and credible nationwide poll of public opinion on topics related to national mood, governance, security, and development in Afghanistan. In 2011, the survey polled over 6,300 respondents from all 34 provinces of Afghanistan.

The Asia Foundation interviewed 6,348 adult Afghans, across all 34 provinces of Afghanistan in face-to-face interviews for the 2011 Survey. Above, surveyors poll a resident in Bamyan Province.

With funding from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), The Asia Foundation has implemented the survey since 2004. Over this period, the survey has generated a treasure trove of data and information, and the changes over time in the views and mindset of the people of Afghanistan.

The opinions of average Afghans matter a great deal in a country that continues to face enormous challenges in governance, security, and livelihoods. Good understanding among national leaders and international “influencers” of the views of the general population are also crucial as the struggling nation attempts to define its national vision while being buffeted by the inconstant waves of international intervention and regional competition.

The coalition partners, dominated by the United States, have begun implementation of a somewhat vaguely defined program of transition of responsibility for security from the international military to Afghan security forces. The transition program and many other important issues related to the future of Afghanistan are being intensely discussed at the national  loya jirga assembly, which I’m attending, that President Hamid Karzai convened in Kabul today, made up of more than 2,000 leaders from a range of backgrounds – from farmers and business owners to local officials from across the country.

The results of the 2011 Survey will be useful information for the thousands of delegates to the loya jirga. A subset of the key findings from this year’s survey is of special interest: the rise of fear among the Afghan population.

Insecurity is the top reason for pessimism about the country’s future, cited by close to half of the 35 percent of those who believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction.

In fact, insecurity (including attacks, violence, and terrorism) is identified as the biggest national problem in Afghanistan by over a third of respondents (38%), particularly in the South East (56%), East (53%), and South West (52%) of the country.

More than half of respondents (56%) say they fear for their personal safety. This proportion has grown steadily from 40 percent in 2006. Moreover, a record high of 22 percent of respondents report that they or someone in their family were victims of violence or crime in the past year. The most common form of crime experienced is physical attack or beating (36%), followed by burglary/looting (12%) and racketeering and extortion (10%).

While violence resulting from the actions of foreign forces was reported by a relatively low 8 percent, as much as 76 percent reported fear when encountering the international military.

The majority of respondents say they have some level of fear voting in a national election (57%), participating in a peaceful demonstration (66%), running for public office (63%), and travelling from one part of Afghanistan to another part of the country (75%).

Fear of participating in Certain Activities 2011

Eighty-two percent of respondents support the government’s attempts to address the security situation through negotiation and reconciliation. Support for the government’s peace and reconciliation efforts and negotiations with the armed opposition is high: East (89%), South West (87%), North West (85%), and South East (83%). Eighty-one percent of respondents also agree with the government providing assistance, jobs, and housing to those who lay down arms and want to reintegrate into society.

Perhaps the growing levels of fear among the Afghan population underlie the population’s continuing support for the government’s approach toward negotiation and reintegration of armed opposition groups. There is not much choice.

V. Bruce J. Tolentino is The Asia Foundation’s country representative in Afghanistan. He can be reached at btolentino@asiafound.org. The views and opinions expressed here are those of the individual author and not those of The Asia Foundation.