In Asia: Weekly Insight and Features from Asia

My colleagues in The Asia Foundation’s Environment Program recently returned from Bangkok, where the Asia-Pacific Climate Change Adaptation Forum they were scheduled to attend was canceled due to the worst flooding in Thailand in 60 years.

Bangkok residents evacuate flooded neighborhoods during Thailand's worst flooding in over half a century. Experts predict that massive floods will hit Asia’s coastal megacities even harder due to stronger storms and sea level rise. Photo: Voice of America.

The disaster resulted in over 600 deaths, approximately 10 million lives affected, $21 billion in lost revenues from major industries, and an estimated $24 billion dollars in damage to property, according to the World Bank. Technical specialists blame the disaster in part on an unusually wet monsoon period coupled with the bad timing of a seasonal high tide in the Gulf of Thailand, but also on the government’s inefficient watershed management and infrastructure for draining high floodwaters on the Chao Phraya river.

In October, the Foundation’s country representative in Thailand, Kim McQuay, blogged about the poor readiness of the recently elected Puea Thai government and the Bangkok Metropolitan Authority to protect communities and businesses and to coordinate recovery for flood victims. In November, In Asia interviewed McQuay about the lack of foresight and responsibility on behalf of a succession of Thai governments and other stakeholders to undertake necessary preventive and mitigation plans that build resiliency to natural disasters.

So it’s sadly fitting that a flood prevented a network of adaptation practitioners from meeting to discuss solutions on how to make watershed management, among other challenges for strengthening disaster preparedness, more resilient to climate change. In fact, it was in the script. According to a 2009 World Wildlife Fund report, massive floods – predicted to be even harder on Asia’s coastal megacities due to stronger storms and sea level rise – are bound to disrupt business-as-usual more frequently by 2050 as a result of missed investments in crucial urban infrastructure over the past few decades.

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The flooding that submerged one-third of Thailand this year was the worst the country had seen in 50 years. Sixty-five provinces and over 4 million people have been affected, tens of thousands have lost jobs, and nearly 700 were killed. Nine provinces remain underwater. Thailand’s National Economic and Social Development Board slashed its projected 2011 GDP to 1.5, down from its pre-flood projection of as much as 4 percent. The World Bank estimates that rehabilitation costs could reach $25 billion.

Primary and secondary schools were not spared from the destruction. A total of 2,237 schools were destroyed or damaged. According to the Ministry of Education, repairs will cost an estimated $44.2 million.

Floodwaters in Thailand damaged thousands of schools, including Angthong Temple Nursery School above, located on the shore of the Chao Phraya River north of Bangkok. Photo: Angthong Temple Nursery School.

Principals from four of the worst affected areas that I visited recently said students missed 25 or more class days on average, which were made up by staying an hour longer each day and, in some cases, coming in on Saturdays. Also, because their workplaces were flood-damaged, many parents could not work for a month or two, dramatically reducing household income and their ability to provide for their families. Even though tuition, lunch, and uniforms at public schools are free, students must pay for courses not required by the Ministry of Education. Ang Thong Nursery, located on the shore of the Chao Phraya River north of Bangkok, for example, offers computer classes and English and Chinese instruction with foreign teachers, totaling $33 per year. These skills are critical to the future success in Thailand’s highly populated and competitive job market but were disrupted due to the flood damage.

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After being hit by the worst flooding in half a century, Thailand and its residents are on the long road to recovery. Waters submerged one-third of the country, left nearly 700 dead, and caused millions in economic damage and lost revenue from major industries as waters ground production to a halt in electronic and auto factories. Although floodwaters threatened to devastate Bangkok – the nation’s capital and economic hub – in the end, the central part of the city was spared the worst. However, many nearby communities – some just six miles from central Bangkok – were underwater, and thousands of residents were left homeless. In this slideshow, Asia Foundation photographer Arpaporn Winijkulchai takes us on a journey through a few of these suburbs during some of the worst of the flooding in November 2011.

In the early weeks of October, people across Thailand experienced great heartache and even disbelief as they watched news coverage of rising floodwaters submerging several sizable industrial factories north of Bangkok one by one. During the first weeks of the flooding, we listened patiently to the hazy and tedious information announced by the government’s Flood Relief Operation Center (FROC).

The recent flooding in Thailand submerged four million acres, leaving over 500 dead and 9 million affected. Above, residents wade through deep water to get to their homes and shops. Photo by flickr user Philip Roeland.

Preoccupied by the government flood news, I lost focus on what to do next. At that point, I was primarily concerned over the likelihood that my house would be affected by the flood, how soon and for how long, and when I should plan to evacuate. Unfortunately, I found the information from the FROC and other sources not very helpful or specific and difficult to interpret. We heard assurances such as:

“At this moment several thousand million cubic meters of water are flowing down from the north; everyone should stay calm because your government is capable and ‘Ao Yoo’ (which translates as ‘we can handle it’). We will build sandbag walls and close major water sluice gates so that Bangkok is guaranteed to be safe.”

Just a few days later, all these assurances seemed to float away with the rising flood waters. News coverage showed metal roofs of houses and factories glinting in the sun, surrounded by expanses of flood water. We watched as thousands of people waded through flooded streets, while others floated in boats and on hand-made rafts or truck beds, carrying their essentials above their heads in search of dry refuge. Many held their beloved dogs and pets, pressing against waist, chest, and neck-high water levels. We watched this watery expanse churn through sewage drains and creep across road surfaces, growing bigger and higher. The experience was not so much frightening as nerve-wracking.  

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Several weeks of the worst flooding Thailand has experienced in 50 years has left more than 400 people dead and affected over 9 million Thais. Although central Bangkok has been spared thus far, many neighborhoods in greater Bangkok and adjacent provinces remain submerged. The country faces economic losses and recovery costs in the billions, and concerns about health and other consequences of the flooding are rising. In Asia interviewed The Asia Foundation’s country representative in Thailand and Bangkok resident Kim McQuay on these and other issues.

It would appear that central Bangkok has been spared the flooding that has devastated communities to the north and west. How are Bangkok’s residents reacting?

Thais who live and work in central Bangkok are naturally relieved that the city center has not experienced flooding on the scale predicted a few days earlier. At the same time, they are acutely conscious of the fact that friends, relatives, and fellow Thais in neighborhoods to the north and west of the city center, and those close to the Chao Phraya River, which bisects Bangkok, have been seriously affected, and that the crisis is far from over. The greatest concern here in Bangkok, which has dominated headlines for the last two days and sparked political tensions between Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and Bangkok Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra, is that flooding will eventually affect a large percentage of the capital, but at a pace slower than originally forecast.

Sandbags along the Chao Phraya River in Nonthaburi province outside of Bangkok. Photo by flickr user Remko Tanis.

Last Wednesday, the government announced that floodwaters had reached so great a volume in communities to the north of Bangkok that the combination of emergency embankments and adjustable water gates that had protected the capital to date could no longer contain the flooding. Having exhausted all stop-gap measures, the authorities insisted that they had no other option left than to initiate a controlled release of the floodwaters through the Chao Phraya and the labyrinth of canals or klongs that flow through and around the capital. Statements issued by the central government and the Bangkok Municipal Authority predicted that the Chao Phraya, having already reached a record level, could rise by a further one to two meters as a seasonal coastal high tide effect resisted the flow of floodwater to the Gulf of Thailand. The increased volume would cause the river to overflow its banks and flood the communities that flank it, spill from those adjacent neighborhoods, and eventually flood all of central Bangkok. The government declared a five-day holiday starting last Thursday to allow residents time to prepare for flooding or to leave the capital at its encouragement.

Thursday and Friday passed with virtually no flooding in central Bangkok beyond the banks of the Chao Phraya, while individual neighborhoods to the north and west continued to flood in domino succession as barricades gave way one after another to the tremendous water pressure bearing on them. By the weekend, as floodwaters crept from one neighborhood to the next, a human factor was added to the equation as some residents reached their limit of patience and took steps to accelerate the release of floodwater. Concern shifted next to Saturday and the anticipated peak tidal effect in late afternoon. Government update bulletins described a series of potential flooding scenarios that were each dependent on whether three critical floodwalls remained intact; however, with the exception of some temporary breaches of floodgates whose local effects were contained by swift repair efforts, the city center remained dry beyond neighborhoods bordering the Chao Phraya.

This same pattern has continued for the last three days. How does one account for it? Some independent analysts have suggested that the government did not actually release the surrounding floodwaters on the scale originally announced – perhaps because the seasonal costal high tides posed greater risk and uncertainty than authorities were prepared to assume. The slower spread of flooding from neighborhood to neighborhood in the northern and western suburbs of Bangkok is consistent with the slower release of water before or after the high tide peaked and the continued failure of emergency embankments.

It remains to be seen whether central Bangkok will stay dry, or whether it is just a matter of time before the floodwaters reach the city center.

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For the last several days, the water level in Bangkok’s Chao Phraya River has been rising in virtual synch with the escalating worry that grips a city bisected by this great river and whose neighborhoods are crisscrossed by dozens of canals, or klongs. This growing concern drew me to the Chao Phraya, whose familiar defined banks had vanished beneath a broad expanse of water that lapped at the window frames of traditional wooden houses that ordinarily sit some distance from the river. Sunlight danced across the swollen river, the quiet scene otherwise offering little clue that communities a few kilometers upriver were contending with the most severe flooding in half a century.

An aerial view over flooded Lokayasuttharam Buddhist temple in in Ayutthaya province. The situation in Bangkok's adjacent provinces has serious implications for the capital, with the Chao Phraya and other river systems that pass through and around the crowded city of 9 million serving as the only natural drainage course for the accumulated floodwaters. Photo: Associated Press

The 2011 monsoon and cyclone season has been particularly severe, prompting a combination of flooding and landslide risks in several Southeast Asian countries. Thailand and Cambodia have been especially hard hit. In Thailand, the flooding has submerged 27 provinces, with the death toll exceeding 300 and the economic consequences unfathomable. Three months of heavy rains have placed the lowlands of Ayutthaya, Nakhonsawan, and other provinces north of Bangkok at highest risk. Satellite images of the thousands of acres of flooded farmlands and industrial estates could easily be mistaken for a vast lake. The situation in these adjacent provinces has implications for the capital, with the Chao Phraya and other river systems that pass through and around the crowded city of 9 million serving as the only natural drainage course for the accumulated floodwaters. The situation is exacerbated by a seasonal tidal effect that resists the natural flow of water from the Chao Phraya to the Gulf of Thailand, which is expected to peak this week.

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