Panel of experts evaluates “Asian Regional Architecture: Steps towards ASEAN Integration”
Program Year: 2015
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is changing the regional landscape as it works towards creating a political, economic, and social/cultural community by 2015. All the while, other regional bodies host meetings and summits, vying for relevance and influence. Against this backdrop of multiple, emerging regional architectures, Myanmar, which continues to become more engaged in the international arena, holds the Chair of ASEAN for the first time in 2014.
On the morning of October 24, a panel of experts gathered in Washington to examine the issues remaining for ASEAN as its 2015 milestone for integration approaches, including whether economic integration is making progress, the effects of Asia’s rising regionalism, and the impact of the U.S. ‘pivot’ in the region. In a discussion moderated by Mr. John Brandon, the director of Regional Cooperation Programs for The Asia Foundation, panelists addressed various aspects of the challenges and opportunities to strengthening ASEAN and achieving regional integration.
In her remarks, Dr. Chaw Chaw Sein, a professor in the Department of International Relations at the University of Yangon in Myanmar, described the “openness, opportunity, and obstacles” characterizing Myanmar as it hosts the ASEAN chair and takes on the responsibility of arranging and convening meetings for its neighbors after a long period of isolation. She noted the challenges of economic integration in Myanmar, particularly the need to speed up the country’s industrialization and prepare local small and medium enterprises (SMEs) for the implications of integration. She highlighted the opportunity for increased civil society (CSO) involvement, noting the ASEAN People’s Forum represented the largest gathering in Myanmar’s contemporary history, with over a thousand participants, including local CSOs from Myanmar. She acknowledged the difficult role for Myanmar in balancing members’ views and China’s position on the South China Sea, and the difficulty for Myanmar’s leaders of simultaneously holding the Chair and also undertaking domestic reforms, particularly the peace process negotiations. She emphasized that through the performance of the ASEAN chairmanship Myanmar’s government seeks to demonstrate its interest in a continued and increasing role in regional affairs.
Mr. Edmund Sim, a partner in the Singapore-based firm Appleton Luff, opened his remarks by stressing the difference between the 2015 goal of economic integration and its effective date, which would not be until December 2015. He noted the difficulty of achieving a single market and single production base that can be inclusive of indigenous actors and address the challenges of open borders for labor. Sim contrasted ASEAN with the EU and NAFTA trade arrangements, noting that to move forward with a single market ASEAN will need more powerful institutions and regulations to navigate the significant barriers to integration. He cited the ASEAN Business Club as one of the first effective groups of businesses engaged in this area.
In her presentation, Ms. Elina Noor, Assistant Director of Foreign Policy and Security Studies at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies in Malaysia, reflected on the upcoming chairmanship of Malaysia and its likely focus on the concept of a “people-centered ASEAN.” She predicted that ASEAN would still declare the community on schedule, even if more work to consolidate it will be ongoing. Noor noted that strengthening the community would include a stronger Secretariat, and that a high-level task force is focused on this. She outlined challenges related to the post-2015 agenda, such as reconciling the behind-the-scenes approach to management versus a more rules-based ASEAN, how to publicly express the goals of ASEAN as measured and relevant, and how to highlight ASEAN’s achievements so that they are more widely known. Noor concluded that it was a challenging time for Malaysia to assume the chair, facing the important question of how to resolve the code of conduct regarding the South China Sea and the need to encourage a “global movement of moderates” despite domestic challenges in the member states.
Ms. Yun Sun, a Fellow in the East Asia Program at The Stimson Center, commented on the Chinese view of regional architecture. She described the “new Asia security concept,” as presented during the Shanghai summit in May, which aims to find “common comprehensive” solutions and ensure all counties have equal and inclusive security. She noted this concept resembles a Chinese version of the Monroe Doctrine, which presents “Asia as Asia’s Asia” and U.S. alliances as not conducive to Asian security. From this viewpoint, she explained, China would prefer regional architecture that would reorient Asia security away from military alliances, and does seem to be supporting ASEAN as a continuing, central mechanism in the region. Regarding regional economic architecture, she noted China is taking a pragmatic approach working through existing mechanisms and bilateral relationships. The proposed AIIB for regional development, she explained, is a response to Chinese perceptions that the current economic multilaterals exclude China. While 21 countries have expressed interest thus far, and China is willing to provide 50% of the funds, she cautioned that it remains unclear how exactly the institution would operate and whether it would more closely resemble a commercial bank or an international aid institution, particularly since most of the 21 signers would be recipients rather than funders of the new bank.
Mr. Kavi Chongkittavorn, a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University in Thailand, reflected that in light of Malaysia’s previous strong performance as ASEAN chair, he expected a successful tenure again in 2015. He reviewed the recent expansions of ASEAN in its +2 and +3 configurations, to include China, Japan and Korea, and Australia, New Zealand, and India, and the US and Russia invitation in 2010 from Singapore. He cautioned that China’s support for ASEAN centrality might not continue, and described the EAS as the best forum and configuration as it convenes leaders and can consider strategic matters. He also noted that recent changes in posture in Japan to be more active and strategic with a more assertive policy stance have unsettled some ASEAN members, which also poses a challenge.
After their presentations, the panelists took questions from the audience of over 45 attendees, who raised issues such as the role of nongovernmental organizations in strengthening ASEAN, the possibility of economic winners and losers among the ASEAN member states after integration, the role of ASEAN in coordinating disaster management, and the effects that the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement and growing social media use will have on ASEAN’s future. The entire discussion was recorded and can be found here.
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